Month: June 2023

9 June 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

Fossil fuel producers owe a staggering US$23 trillion in climate reparations, according to a new study, which argues that climate migrants should be among the first to benefit from the “tainted wealth” of the world’s largest polluters. 

Energy giants such as Saudi Aramco and ExxonMobil have for decades been “complicit” in thwarting efforts to avert climate catastrophe, the study argues. Now they have a “moral responsibility” to pay compensation to those most affected by the harm caused.  

The study says that almost a quarter of this monumental debt, US$5.4 trillion, lies at the feet of the top 21 producers, who should together pay US$209 billion a year to wipe their climate slate clean. 

The recently released study was written by Italian social scientist and professor Marco Grasso, who last year published a book on holding the oil industry to account for the climate crisis; and Richard Heede, co-founder of the US-based Climate Accountability Institute. 

The study begins by highlighting the fundamental unfairness of global warming and all of the flooding, fires and famine that come with it. An estimated 92% of climate emissions come from the Global North, the study says. And the richest 1% of humanity has caused 15% of all emissions, more than double the 7% caused by the poorest half combined. 

Oil, gas and coal producers are meanwhile accused of “wilfully ignoring foreseeable climate harm,” even successfully delaying action to mitigate it through advertorials, lobbying and political donations. As such, the researchers argue, they must be “held accountable”. 

Based on a survey of 738 economists with climate expertise, the study calculates that human-caused climate change will cause US$99 trillion in damages globally between 2025 and 2050. Of this, US$70 trillion is due to fossil fuels. 

There is no “objective basis” to say who should pay this biblical climate bill between fossil fuel producers, fossil fuel emitters and political authorities, say the researchers. So they split it evenly, with each group to pay a third: US$23.3 trillion. 

Based on the historical emissions of fossil fuel producers, the researchers found that state-owned Saudi Aramco, responsible for a stunning 4.78% of global emissions, has by far the highest bill to pay: US$1.1 trillion. Rounding out the top five are ExxonMobil (US, US$478 billion), Shell (UK, US$424 billion), BP (UK, US$377 billion) and Chevron (US, US$333 billion).  

State-owned fossil fuel producers from less well-off countries, such as Russia’s Gazprom and Mexico’s Pemex, are given discounted bills. State producers in poorer countries such as India, Iran and Venezuela get a free pass entirely. 

The study does not go into detail on who should receive the money, but says that it should “compensate subjects more vulnerable to climate harm such as climate migrants and refugees, Indigenous peoples, racial and ethnic minority communities, people with disabilities, and people who are socially and economically disadvantaged.”

Shell issued a statement saying that the energy system is a result of “society’s choices” over many decades and that “everyone has a role to play” in addressing climate change. “For our part, we are reducing our own emissions and working closely with our customers to help them reduce theirs.”

Kristin Casper, General Counsel at Greenpeace International, said that fossil fuel companies must now “stop drilling and start paying”. 

2 June 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

Global warming will soon push billions of people into living in “unprecedented” heat that threatens human survival, according to new research, with entire countries becoming dangerously hot. 

Various models used by the researchers found that as many as two billion people could be living in dangerously hot conditions by 2070 – just 37 years from now. 

While some of those models were upper estimates, even if the world continues warming at its current rate, two billion people will be left in dangerous heat by the end of the century.

“For every 0.1°C of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat,” said University of Exeter professor Tim Lenton, one of the leaders of the research.

“This reveals both the scale of the problem and the importance of decisive action to reduce carbon emissions.”

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – the goal set out in the Paris Agreement – rather than the 2.7°C that the world is on a path to reach would mean “five times fewer people in 2100 being exposed to dangerous heat,” says Lenton. 

Another lead researcher, Professor Marten Scheffer at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, said that the rising temperatures could lead “a billion or so” people to consider migrating to cooler places. 

The study, published in May, is said to be the first of its kind to treat all humans equally. Until now, research has calculated harm caused by the climate crisis in monetary terms – with rich people having more to lose. Research has also typically valued those living now more highly than those living in the future.

“This is unethical,” says the study. “When life or health are at stake, all people should be considered equal, whether rich or poor, alive or yet to be born.”

The study identified the “climate niche” in which most humans exist, with the majority of humans living in average temperatures around two peaks of 13°C or 27°C.

Very few people have historically lived in average temperatures of 29°C or above, which is what the study defined as the upper limit for humans’ climate niche. Living in such temperatures increases deaths, migration and conflict – among a raft of other bad side effects. 

A figure from the study

The study estimates that global warming has to date pushed more than 600 million people outside the temperature niche.

India and Nigeria are already showing “hotspots” of increased exposure to extreme heat. At the current rate of warming, it is predicted that India will have 600 million people and Nigeria 300 million people living outside of the niche by 2070. 

By that time some entire countries, including Burkina Faso and Mali, will be exposed to average temperatures of 29°C or above. 

Worst-case scenarios of around 3.6 °C or even 4.4 °C global warming could put half of the world population outside the niche by the end of the century, which the study says poses an “existential risk” to humanity. 

The study did not consider exposure to other sources of climate harm, including sea-level rise, which United Nations secretary general António Guterres recently warned could lead to migration on a “biblical” scale.