A group of activists have filed the first-ever climate lawsuit against Russia’s government, demanding urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions in a country that is warming twice as fast as the global average.
The lawsuit was filed in Russia’s supreme court by plaintiffs including Ekozashita or ‘Eco-defence’ and the Moscow Helsinki Group, founded in the 1970s to expose human rights abuses in the Soviet Union.
In the 13 September filing seen by Reuters, the group says that “while temperatures around the world have risen by about 1°C compared to pre-industrial levels over the past 50 years, in Russia they have risen by 2.5°C and this ratio will continue or even worsen in the future.”
The group says the lawsuit is the first of its kind to be accepted by a Russian court.
Russia has pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to 70% of their 1990 level by 2030. By 2050, it says it will cut emissions to 20% of the 1990 level.
But the group says the only way Russia can meet its obligations under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is to reduce its emissions to 31% of 1990 levels by 2030; and to 5% of 1990 levels by 2050.
Failure to meet those more ambitious targets could seriously imperil a country that has two thirds of its territory in the Arctic North, the group argues.
Those targets will only be made tougher by Russia’s war with Ukraine, which has aside from its immediate environmental destruction also prompted a reported global “gold rush” for new fossil fuel infrastructure.
Eighteen activists are also signatories to the lawsuit and the group told The Guardian that it faces “considerable risks” in taking a public stand in a country known for brutal crackdowns against dissent – especially following the invasion of Ukraine.
However, by taking the government to court, the group hopes that it will “save the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.”
At COP26, India’s Prime Minister Modi announced the country’s commitment to become a net-zero carbon emitter by 2070. Alongside this, the adoption of the country’s 2022 Green Hydrogen Policy also displays further dedication to achieve this ambitious plan – including supplying up to 50% of the nation’s total energy through renewable sources by 2030.
However, despite the government’s claims of environmental action, India had become the world’s third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide by 2020 (with China and the US respectively ranked first and second).
This is especially concerning given the questions surrounding India’s capability to adapt to climate change. Several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports have concluded that countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are some of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. In recent years, India has experienced an increase in environmental disasters – such as cyclones, glacier melts, heat waves, floods, and more. In March 2022, the country recorded its hottest temperatures in 122 years. Some two months later, temperatures in several of India’s states had reached a new high of 49ºC (120ºF).
The Impact of Extreme Weather
The recent increase in heatwaves has already had a severe impact on the country’s economy and healthcare system, as well as its agricultural industry. In May 2022, some of the most affected areas of the country saw wheat yields drop by up to 50% – worsening the fears over a global wheat shortage related to the Russian government’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022.
What’s more, agricultural workers in the country are also facing a number of challenges. As a result of climate change, summer months are beginning earlier in the year, which can disrupt crop cycles and harvest seasons. Sporadic and prolonged summers months are also making it more difficult to predict monsoon seasons, meaning India’s farmers need to find new ways to adapt to more erratic weather patterns – or migrate to areas with more suitable growing conditions.
Farmers are not the only group of people who are affected by the earlier onset of summer. As a result of higher temperatures, an unprecedented demand for electricity (alongside a coal shortage) has led the entire population to face one of its worst electricity crises in decades. Some states such as Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Punjab are experiencing load shedding for up to eight hours per day – worsening the food crisis as many people are left unable to store refrigerated goods at home.
Rainfall levels are also becoming more unpredictable in India. For instance, the northeastern state of Assam has experienced significantly high levels of pre-monsoon rainfall, which have led to state-wide flooding. Moreover, this extreme weather caused one of the country’s major rivers, the Brahmaputra, to overflow – affecting around 500,000 people across 1,500 villages. And while India’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is providing aid and support to the affected people, the sudden influx of migration to surrounding cities has undoubtedly added pressure to local administrations which we already struggling to meet demand.
But flash floods are not an uncommon phenomenon in the state of Assam. According to statistics from the Government of Assam’s Water Resources department, the region experiences three to four floods per year. Not only do these floods displace millions of people annually, they also cause extensive environmental degradation such as coastal erosion. However, despite how concerning these natural disasters are, local governments have failed to implement effective climate adaptation plans that can predict upcoming floods.
Climate Mitigation in India
In order for India to deal with these ever-worsening problems, climate mitigation strategies are essential, but the government also needs to grant equal focus to adaptation techniques. Studies indicate that it can take decades to achieve positive results from implementing climate mitigation strategies. In fact, one of the key findings of the IPCC’s sixth Assessment Report (AR6) was that between 2010 and 2019, the highest-ever levels of global greenhouse gas emissions were recorded – despite multiple international efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change since the 1990s.
This is especially concerning for India. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that since 1986, the Indian subcontinent has been facing an increasing number of heatwaves. What’s more, it predicts that the intensity, duration, and frequency of these heatwaves will significantly increase in the coming years.
So how is the Indian government working to mitigate and adapt to these rapidly changing climates – if at all? In 2015, India launched its National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) with a budget allocation of 3.5 billion rupees (350 crores, or around US $44 million). However, research from The Indian Express found that since 2017, the grants released from the NAFCC have been steadily declining. Between 2017 and 2018, the government spent around 115 crores (around US $14.5 million), whereas between 2021 and 2022, only 27.8 crores (around US $350,000) were used to fund climate adaptation strategies.
However, a significant proportion of the country’s population still remains vulnerable to the impact of climate change – particularly those who live in slum areas, as well as agricultural workers. It’s evident that death rates attributed to the effects of extreme heatwaves are still increasing. This is largely because of economic vulnerability, as day laborers and slum populations are forcibly more exposed to excessive heat levels for prolonged periods of time.
A Move Towards Mitigation
Models can be used to predict the early onset of heatwaves, including tools developed by the WMO and the India Meteorological Department (IMD). But the government still has an obligation to develop and implement more short and long-term solutions that not only protect people from climate-related health hazards, but also provide solutions that help to safeguard the livelihoods of more vulnerable communities. Moreover, these solutions should be implemented alongside community rehabilitation programs, widespread health and safety awareness campaigns, and localized economic programs across the country.
India has a varied climate; while the north faces extreme heatwaves, the northeast of the country is experiencing flash floods. These differences only serve to strengthen the case that the government needs to develop localized programs to mitigate and adapt to region-specific climate disasters.
Undoubtedly, climate mitigation is important, but it is certainly not sufficient for such a climate-diverse country like India. Findings from several IPCC reports have proven that to successfully handle issues related to climate change, both mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be implemented together. India has already heavily invested in climate mitigation, but it is now time for the country’s government to do the same with climate adaptation.
Skand Agarwal currently studies Transnational Governance, with a specialisation in climate change and environment, at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy.
Born in India, Skand has experience working with military think tanks, media houses, and in environmental activism, through which he aims to contribute to South Asia’s climate adaptability and resilience, while also advocating for the much-ignored rights of climate migrants. Skand also contributes to Earth Refuge’s Faces podcast series.
This thesis was submitted to the Western New England University School of Law in 2022 – by Ashley Rivera
Abstract
The city of Bangkok is sinking into the ocean at an alarming rate. Some parts of Bangkok are facing sinkage rates of between one to two centimeters a year, and the sea level rises up to four millimeters each year. A combination of climate and infrastructure crises is causing families to be displaced and entire villages destroyed. Extreme measures must be taken to preserve what is left of the Thai capital. If not, the city is sure to vanish.
Ashley Rivera is a law student at Western New England University School of Law, where she has a great interest in environmental and human rights law, and hopes to practice in these fields upon graduation. She is co-founder and co-president of the Environmental Law Coalition, where she teaches other students about sustainability, activism, and other ways to get involved in environmental protection. Ashley believes that human rights and environmental justice go hand-in-hand as humans have a right to live in an environment free from toxic pollution, and access to the natural resources needed to survive and prosper.
No edits have been made to maintain the author’s tone of voice.
This thesis was submitted to SOAS in 2021 – by Ayesha Shingruf
Abstract
The onset of extreme weather events is creating drastic challenges for people around the world. Studies have shown strong links of climate change with the displacement of people, suggesting that the world will experience unprecedented levels of climate refugees. Because of the increase in the severity and frequency of intense weather conditions, refugee movements will be seen both internally and across international borders. This poses a serious question within international and domestic laws for their ability to offer protection to those displaced by climate change. By offering a case study of South Asia – a region containing some of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate variability – this paper examines regional laws and policies as well as specific international principles as they relate to refugees. In particular, this research looks at the potential of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for Loss and Damage to arrive at possible pathways to safeguard rights for climate refugees. Using a human rights based-approach, this paper maintains that the principle of loss and damage will create channels for legal protection to those fleeing their homes due to the harsh changes in their environment.
What inspired you to write and research this piece?
I was born and raised in Lahore, Pakistan. For years, urban cities in Pakistan have consistently ranked as being the most polluted in the world, and some regions have experienced intense flooding and heatwaves. Similar patterns can be seen in India and Bangladesh as well. South Asia is collectively suffering the consequences of this global crisis on its agriculture, economy, human health, and livelihoods as we speak. There is a sense then, of people wanting to move to a different place to live a healthier and safer life. Those who pay attention to this crisis know that migratory movements caused by climate change are already occurring. Unfortunately, such movements will only increase in severity owing to the rise in temperatures coupled with regional conflicts. I wanted to address the fact that there is an absence of legal tools that can offer protection to climate refugees, and explore different frameworks that would help in safeguarding their human rights.
What impact do you hope this research will have?
There is minimal literature and discourse on climate refugees within the context of South Asia. This is alarming because the region is one of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. My only hope is that this drives significant conversation so that attention is paid to this looming threat. This is a collective fight, and a lot of research needs to be carried out to arrive at efficient policies for climate refugees. I look forward to students and academics exploring more pathways that can legally aid climate refugees in the future.
Ayesha Shingruf is a research fellow in climate change education and sustainability at Nottingham Trent University. She is interested in exploring the interplay of climate change, migration, and conflict. Ayesha completed her postgraduate degree in human rights law from SOAS, University of London. In her free time, Ayesha enjoys yoga, surfing, trying new foods, and reading a lot of poetry.
No edits have been made to maintain the author’s tone of voice.
25 March 2022 – by Earth Refuge Correspondent Polly Nash
In this interview, correspondent Polly Nash talks to Marinel Ubaldo about her first-hand experience of Super Typhoon Haiyan that hit the Philippines in 2013 and devastated Marinel’s community and family home. The pair discuss Marinel’s subsequent climate activism and the vital need for people from the Global North to pass on the microphone to those from the Global South who are most severely impacted by climate related disasters.
“I felt like I couldn’t live in my house anymore … even just hearing the waves crashing nearby gave me trauma, gave me chills.”
“If our government were really serious about keeping people safe they should have relocated people living on the shore, because after Super Typhoon Haiyan we’re still facing the same risks and the same hazards”
With more than 10 million inhabitants, Jakarta has become one of the largest metropolitan cities in the world. While the city has witnessed rapid economic development, many social and environmental issues are yet to be resolved – most critically, the fact that Jakarta is sinking at the rate of 10 centimeters per year. This ticking time bomb is expected to displace the majority of Jakarta’s population by 2050.
Understanding Jakarta’s existential threat is not an easy task. The issue spans from inadequate urban planning to lack of governmental preventive actions, in addition to massive groundwater loss. The latter is particularly problematic for a local population that relies on groundwater, since without it, Jakarta will be unable to provide access to clean water for its inhabitants.
The extraction of groundwater in Jakarta on a massive scale over the past six decades is one of the major reasons for its sinking. Water exists between sediment layers in the ground underneath Jakarta, and when this is removed in excessive, unregulated amounts, the sediment layers can collapse and compress together, reducing the elevation of affected areas on a dramatic scale. The heavily impacted coastal area of North Jakarta has already sunk 2.5 meters over the past decade and many fishing neighbourhoods have been destroyed.
Due to its seasonal heavy rain climate and limited open space for water absorption, Jakarta has faced many annual floods; the most detrimental flooding in 2020 alone left millions affected, thousands displaced and at least 26 dead. Research shows that global warming is also a factor behind instances of severe flooding across Greater Jakarta, with increasing rainfall and extreme monsoon storms making the current situation worse. A report by Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency indicates that Jakarta’s rainfall has reached 335 millimetres per day – enough to classify as extreme rain. Furthermore, some areas in Jakarta that are already below sea level are on the verge of sinking entirely due to unstoppable global sea level rise.
While many anticipate that Jakarta only has until 2050 before the issue is irreversible, there are concerns that the tipping point could occur even sooner. As the hub of Indonesia’s economic activities, Jakarta offers many job opportunities for Indonesians, hence the city still experiences an influx of people. With the population of Jakarta increasing annually, new high-rise apartments and housing complexes in Greater Jakarta are rapidly being built, further limiting open spaces and groundwater usage, and accelerating Jakarta’s sinking rate.
Whilst this initially sounds promising, many activists and research institutes think differently. Moving the capital to Borneo Island might be damaging for Indonesia’s rainforest in building the city. In addition, an issue of indigenous rights of tribal communities in Borneo Island also emerges in the discussion. Thousands of indigenous people may be displaced from their tribal lands as large areas of the forest are cleared to build the new capital. Moving the capital to another island will also not necessarily resolve Jakarta’s problem of land sinkage, because many people might still be reluctant to move, meaning that Jakarta will remain the home of economic and industrial activities, all of which will continue to face the same threats.
Apart from this, the government is also building a sea wall across Jakarta’s coastline to prevent sea level rise’s impacts on Jakarta. It may minimize the effects of sea abrasion on Jakarta, but given that the main cause of Jakarta’s sinking is the lack of government-supplied drinking water, this will leave a key issue unsolved. Less than 60% of Jakarta inhabitants are covered by piped water infrastructure, and even this is centralized in wealthy areas.This means that for as long as the population remains reliant on groundwater and the government remains unable to find an alternative way to supply its citizens with clean water, then Jakarta’s sinking rate will be nowhere near declining.
Jakarta may well be on its way to becoming uninhabitable in the near future unless solutions are found without any further delay. While the responsibility rests mainly on the government, it is also imperative for Jakarta’s inhabitants to not further exacerbate the problems. As a collective, Jakarta’s residents can slow the rate of damage by adopting a more environmentally friendly lifestyle, for example by using public transportation more frequently, effectively managing their waste, and consuming water more efficiently. By increasing their environmental awareness, Jakarta’s residents can help to alleaviate the negative impacts of climate change on Jakarta’s sinking, meaning that an integrated educational and political approach will be key. Whether Jakarta’s collapse as a city will happen depends on the ability of all societal actors to cooperate together in preventing this occurrence.
Harry David is a LLM student on the Erasmus Mundus International Law of Global Peace, Security, and Development programme at the University of Glasgow. He holds a BA in International Relations from Universitas Gadjah Mada in Indonesia , and also completed a Human Security short course from Kyoto University in Japan.
Harry has worked as a junior policy researcher at a diplomatic mission in Jakarta and as an executive at the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO). He is passionate about sustainability, climate change, and human rights issues.
Melting ice shelves, cyclones, floods, wildfires – these are the visuals that come to mind when thinking about climate change. Increasingly, the global community is also realizing the impact of rising temperatures on the world’s poor and most vulnerable communities. But the future could be bleaker still – scientists opine that wars of the future could be fought over resources made scarce due to climate change.
Conflict over natural resources is not a new phenomenon. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests that in the last 60 years, at least 40% of all intrastate conflicts had a link to natural resources. Since 1990, at least 18 violent conflicts have been fueled by the exploitation of natural resources, whether high-value resources like diamonds, gold and oil, or scarce ones like fertile land and water. That being said, increasing numbers of climate-linked disasters, including desertification, more frequent and intense droughts, heavier rains, and flash floods have only added to existing tensions. An international group of scholars has recently concluded that severe climate change will lead to more conflict in the future.According to a 2014 report authored by a group of more than a dozen retired U.S. generals and admirals from the armed forces, climate change poses a serious threat to U.S. national security and is becoming a “catalyst for conflict” in vulnerable areas. This is not to say that the link between climate change and armed conflict is well understood. Disentangling higher temperatures, drought and sea-level rise from other factors, such as bad governance, corruption, existing ethnic tensions and economics, is difficult. But researchers do believe that even if climate change won’t initiate conflicts in the future, it could serve as a ‘threat multiplier’ and exacerbate crises.[4]
A recent report from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre used advance machine-learning algorithms to identify five hotspots for potential conflicts where multiple countries shared the same water body. The hotspots identified were the Ganges-Brahmaputra region, where the water flows through Bangladesh and India; the Colorado river, which runs through the United States and Mexico; the Indus region, which has water bodies separating India and Pakistan; the Tigris-Euphrates, which flows through Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait; and finally, the Nile that runs through 11 African countries. Lack of water across these water bodies could intensify existing tensions among countries and bring about social unrest.
For example, Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia all depend on inflow from the Nile and have long exchanged political blows over the $5bn upstream Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project. Egypt relies on the Nile for 90 per cent of its water needs while Sudan is highly vulnerable to droughts due to alteration of the river’s behavior. The in-progress dam will be able to bring electricity to over 50 per cent of Ethiopians who currently do not have it and also enable Ethiopia to control the flow of the Blue Nile, a major tributary of the Nile. When the Ethiopian government announced plans to press ahead with the project, Egypt and Sudan held a joint war exercise in May 2021, pointedly called “Guardians of the Nile.” The situation has perhaps the highest risk of spilling into a water war of all the disputes in today’s political landscape, but there are several other hotspots around the world.
Solutions to averting resource conflicts vary depending on a multitude of factors – sometimes resolution requires diplomacy, whereas other instances require innovative infrastructure projects. As climate change and growing human populations continue to compound the problem of resource scarcity around the world, bespoke solutions will become ever more necessary to stop conflict.
Nikunj Bhimsaria is a consultant currently working for a climate focused philanthropy. In the past, he has worked as a business strategy consultant across various sectors and has also volunteered for various non-profits. His undergraduate background is in Engineering from BITS Pilani.
Interested in human-environmental ecosystems and how they adapt to climate change, Nikunj has been part of various climate adaptation projects. He is committed to mainstreaming climate issues by combining research with human narratives.
Rapid warming in regions across Russia has left millions in danger of displacement.
Climate scientists report that Russia is warming at 2.5 times the global average.1 Throughout 2020, Siberia experienced abnormally high temperatures and record breaking heat waves that peaked at 100º fahrenheit, (38º celsius).2 During the winter, temperatures were 50-59ºF (10-15ºC) above average.3 For reference, the median seasonal temperatures in this region tend to range from 60ºF (20ºC) in the summer to -13ºF (-25ºC) in the winter, with record lows reaching -90ºF (-67.8ºC) in northeastern areas of Russia.4
Siberia’s record high (100ºF) and low (-90ºF) display a temperature difference of 190ºF (87ºC). This spread exceeds some of the largest temperature deviations on earth.5
Frequent and intense variations in the country’s seasonality have exacerbated extreme temperature anomalies. These changes act as a catalyst for environmental disaster, feuling massive wildfires, torrential flooding, and melting of permafrost.
A vast majority of Siberian fires are burning above carbon-abundant peatlands and frozen soil that overlie actively thawing permafrost. These conditions have destabilized both rural and urban regions of Russia, resulting in increased damage to pipelines and the collapse of infrastructure. A report released from the Krasnoyarsk territory wrote that 60% of all structures in the closed city of Norilsk are deformed due to permafrost loss, adding to the displacement of its dense population.6
Research reveals that Siberian forest fires have caused a surge in carbon emissions by nearly one-third (395 megatonnes in 2020), in comparison to 208 megatonnes in 2019.7
An increase in tundra fires has also given rise to a fairly new phenomenon known as ‘zombie’ fires. These burns stem from summertime wildfires that survive throughout the depths of winter, brewing beneath the snow packed surface. They remain insulated by highly flammable, carbon-rich vegetation that smolders and reignites as the ground defrosts.8
These fires have begun creeping further into northern spreads of Siberia, where peatland is plentiful. Peat fires emit 100 times more carbon than typical wildfires, and can be more difficult to extinguish.9 As fires continue to emerge in permafrost zones, the release of methane and other hydrocarbons will intensify global warming.
Scientists warn that the permafrost layer may disappear completely within the next three decades if current warming trends prevail.10 These changes are predicted to release 100s of billions of tons of Co2 into the atmosphere, which will compound climate-sensitive issues around the world.11
Widespread flooding in Siberia has also contributed to large-scale degradation and displacement. During the summer of 2019, flash floods inundated nearly 103 communities, leaving 33,000 people displaced and 2,165 in immediate need of medical assistance.12
Extreme variations in regional rainfall characteristics have amplified the frequency and magnitude of recent floods. In June of 2021, the Crimean City of Yalta declared a state of emergency after a cyclone hit the Black Sea Peninsula, lashing the region with intense rain. So far, the floods have submerged the city of Kerch and some surrounding districts, forcing more than 1,300 people to evacuate their homes.13
A pervasive concern is that the Kremlin will continue to neglect the ever-present manifestations of climate change. However, the impacts of environmental disaster and displacement may eventually make climate policy too difficult to deflect.
The future of Russia’s socioeconomic well-being rests on the implementation of a strong adaptation framework. It will be crucial for nations to work in union against the adverse effects of anthropogenic warming in order to curtail climate collapse.
Rachel Aronoff recently graduated from UC Santa Barbara with a degree in English, and a specialization in Literature and the Environment. She is also certified in health and wellness coaching, personal training, and in the process of becoming a yoga instructor.
References
1 Nilsen, Thomas. (2015). Arctic Russia is warming 2.5 times faster than rest of the globe. The Barents Observer. Retrieved June 18, 2021. https://thebarentsobserver.com/ru/node/158
“We demand that Global North countries recognise climate migrants as such.”
– Xiye Bastida, youth climate activist, US Leaders Summit on Climate 2021
As climate activists demand accountability from powerful corporate and government actors, the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups is the imprint on the flipside of the climate justice coin. With climate change and human rights issues growing inseparable, activists are focusing their attention on vulnerable groups like farmers, women and people in poverty, especially in the Global South. An issue that encompasses all these groups is climate-induced displacement and migration.
‘Climate migration’ refers to the movement of people forced to leave, or choosing to leave their homes predominantly due to climate change impacts[1]. Slow onset climate change impacts that drive climate migration include crop failure, water shortage, and rising sea levels. These can pressure people to flee their homes either by rendering their livelihoods untenable (e.g. for farmers) or making their homes uninhabitable (e.g. due to sea level rise)[2]. Other sudden climate-induced events like flash floods and typhoons also drive temporary displacement.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that 80% of annual worldwide sudden onset natural disaster-induced displacement occurs in the Asia Pacific region, where income inequality, conflict, and regional connectivity are also major drivers of migration[3]. A 2010 report for the US National Intelligence Council predicted that climate change may induce cross-border movements of “Vietnamese and Indonesians to Malaysia, Cambodians and Laotians to Thailand, Burmese to Thailand and Malaysia, and Filipinos throughout the region”[4]. Within borders, coastal communities can feel the growing impacts of sea level rise, fish stock depletion and intensifying coastal storms, and may move inland away from the coasts. Nearby cities and urban areas with commerce, job opportunities, and family relations also serve as pull factors for displaced people[5].
LET’S TALK ABOUT IT
Climate migration remains on the fringe of discourse in the front-facing messages of some prominent climate movements, both in Southeast Asia and internationally. It is merely identified as one of many climate threats in cautionary messages about global warming, rather than a potential thrust of climate action. Mentions of climate migration or displacement usually take the form of standalone articles aiming to educate audiences about the urgency of climate change, such as those by Greenpeace US[6]. Extinction Rebellion US consolidates resources on climate change and migration on its website, directing users to news articles and research[7]. In news interviews, members of Klima Action Malaysia (KAMY), a Malaysia youth climate group, cite climate migration as one of the consequences of inaction[8].
Understandably, activists focus on solutions and opportunities that can lead to calls for action that their audiences can contribute to, and demands for governments and corporations. These are messages that feed into their positive imagination of a just transition and a climate-resilient future; but can climate migration be a part of that imagination?
The table below exhibits some examples of initiatives prioritised by these movements.
Organisation/initiative
Region/country
Main calls to action, demands or principles
Greenpeace International
International
‘Ways to Act’· Protect the Oceans· Tell your story· Stop plastic pollution· Join the movement for clean air· Prevent uncontrollable global fires· Raise your voice for climate justice
Sunrise Movement
United States
(Selected) principles· Stop climate change and create good-paying jobs in the process· People from all paths of life· Non-violence· Unite with other movements for change· Fight for the liberation of all people
Asia Climate Rally 2020
Asia
Demands· Climate action now· Defend our environmental defenders· Policies for the people and planet· Demand ambition, collaboration and accountability· Towards a just recovery
Youth Advocates for Climate Action Philippines (YACAP)
Philippines
‘Points of Unity’· Climate justice· Urgency of climate action· Defend our environmental defenders· Youth-led collective action· System change
Klima Action Malaysia (KAMY)
Malaysia
Demands· Inclusive and intersectional climate action· Serious political will· The right to climate information
Besides calling for accelerated reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, as shown in bold, most of these groups share a common thread on inclusiveness and climate justice — making sure that climate action considers the voice and well-being of all people, including vulnerable groups. It is evident that the protection of climate migrants does fall under the umbrella of inclusive climate action that is being championed by many activists; but it is discussed mostly insofar as minimising climate change can help to prevent climate displacement. The fact is that climate displacement is already happening. How does the current plight of climate migrants fit into the demand for a just transition?
A THREAT TO SECURITY?
Governments have already recognised the alleged security threat presented by climate migration for some years. The security-based narrative for approaching climate migration argues that instability in neighbouring countries can drive illegal migration, which can in turn exacerbate drug and arms trafficking and resource-related conflict[9]. This perspective uses self-interest as a credible motivation for governments, so integrating human rights and justice into such a mindset is a challenge. Some have responded to this security concern by advocating for a military strategy focusing on stronger border protection, but climate security expert Professor Lorraine Elliott warns this will instead likely increase instability and uncertainty, while further punishing those already vulnerable to the climate crisis[10]. In a report on climate migration, peacebuilding organisation International Alert stresses that “migration in itself need not be a destabilising factor… it is not the process, but the context and the political response to immigration that shape the risks of violent conflict”[11]. For example, in a study on Indonesian-Malaysian labour migration, researchers found that conflict was triggered when it shifted from “being perceived as an economic issue with potential gains for both countries” to a “political and security issue in which the interests of sending and receiving states were “viewed as threats to one another”[12].
INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT
In terms of internal displacement, case studies from the Philippines, Cambodia, and Indonesia have found inadequate institutional and legal provisions for the human rights of those affected by natural disasters — especially women, people with disabilities, and the elderly. Researchers’ recommendations included disaster risk management policies with specific guidelines on the treatment of vulnerable groups in compliance with international standards, as well as comprehensive laws enacting the rights of internally displaced people (IDPs) in accordance with the UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. In particular, it was pointed out that such policy development would be an opportunity to overcome patriarchal beliefs and “harness the knowledge and experiences of women”[13].
There is, then, a precedent for climate activists to apply the “justice” in “climate justice”, to garner greater empathy and equity in government responses to climate migrants. Professor Elliott does not support “simply mainstreaming climate change into security discourses”, but rather for “bottom-up policymaking” that aims to strengthen adaptation, social resilience, disaster risk management, and sustainable development strategies[14]. This is echoed by a 2018 World Bank report on internal climate migration, which recommends that governments actively embed climate migration into development planning and seek to improve their understanding of the issue itself[15].
A POSITIVE OUTLOOK
Climate activists also favour a positive framing of climate action, not just as the prevention of disaster, but as an opportunity for better lives. A campaign by the Singapore Climate Rally called #TakeBack2050 encouraged its audience to imagine what life would be like in 2050 after overcoming the climate crisis. Participants raised their hopes for community gardens, renewable energy, and a more equitable society[16]. This uplifting narrative has already been embraced by many world leaders. At the US Leaders’ Climate Summit in April 2021, Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc emphasised that transitioning to a net zero economy would “bring about huge opportunities and benefits, including jobs, ensuring energy security and enhancing economic competitiveness and sustainability”.
Such positivity can also be applied to climate migration. Former director of the Australian Migration Research Centre, Professor Graeme Hugo, argued that climate migration can help build resilience and adaptive capacity in vulnerable areas. Migration can benefit host and source countries through remittances, knowledge transfer, increased foreign direct investment and diaspora involvement in development and most certainly, benefit migrants themselves and their families. Migration has also contributed to poverty reduction in Southeast Asia[17]. Therefore, viewing climate migration as a development opportunity rather than just a coping response can maximise the benefits for all parties.
Paying greater attention to climate migration as a tenet of climate justice is well-aligned with the existing principles and demands of climate activists. While Global North activists can argue for the moral responsibility of developed countries to help climate migrants in and from developing countries; Southeast Asian countries, which are mostly developing, call for different tactics. Framing the issue as a pragmatic development opportunity can help avoid excessive security tensions around climate migration in a region already rife with political turmoil, and instead encourage the mainstreaming of climate migration into national planning. Southeast Asian climate activists repeatedly point out that their countries are already experiencing some of the most intense impacts of climate change, which disproportionately affect vulnerable groups; and these include climate displacement and migration. It is an issue which presents both the urgency and potential for climate activists to call upon governments and the international community to recognise the opportunities that fair and well-planned climate migration and displacement policies in Southeast Asia can establish beyond humanitarian responses.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not represent the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
Jiahui Qiu is a research officer at the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. She is a graduate in Environmental Studies from the National University of Singapore. Her interests include natural capital and ecosystem services, climate policy, and just transitions.
The displaced Rohingya Muslim people – currently living in more than 33 camps in the Cox’s Bazar districts of Bangladesh – comprise one of the most unfortunate, destitute and oppressed communities in the world, due to their statelessness. A new generation of Rohingya children are growing up in camps without any foreseeable future.
The recent exodus of more than 1 million Rohingya people to a small area of Cox’s Bazar land has generated densely cramped conditions that have serious environmental destruction implications. This is now of serious concern to the government of Bangladesh (GOB) and the local population. The influx of a large number of refugees has had significant effects on Bangladesh’s economy, society, and environment. As such, the GOB has planned to relocate more than 100,000 displaced people under the ‘Ashrayan-3’ project to the island of Bhasan Char in the Noakhali district, with a view to reducing the population pressure in the current locations, and also improving their living conditions with modern facilities.
Bashan Char – Source: Taken by the research team
However, the relocation plan of the GOB has already sparked debate and criticism amongst academics, policy makers and media personalities both locally and internationally. Ithas been suggested that relocation to Bhasan Char should be carried out with informed consent, and the provision of appropriate information about the Island beforehand.
The main criticisms of the relocation project center around the island’s proneness to natural disaster, its isolation from the landmass of Bangladesh, and a potential lack of basic services (for example, to education or healthcare). Though these concerns are partially justified, appropriate measures from the GOB and international organisations will reduce their likelihood. Further, Bangladeshi nationals are themselves living on isolated islands, such as Hatia and Sandwip. In this way, the concerns outlined are not enough to halt the relocation project.
The Field Study
A research team from the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Dhaka conducted research on 18-20 December 2020. Engaging in participant observation, focus group discussions and key informant interviews in Bhasan Char, they then used this firsthand information to assess the livability and viability of the Ashrayan-3 project.
The study found that the established facilities are of a high standard in comparison to any other refugee shelters in Bangladesh. The project coordinator found that, of the total area of usable land (6427 acres), the project area covers 1702 acres. The island of Bhasan Char itself covers an expanse of 13000 acres. There are a total of 120 cluster houses in the project area, and each of these clusters has 12 individual houses comprising 16 rooms, and a four-storied shelter station. The houses are built on concrete blocks that raise them 4 feet above the ground. Each individual house can host up to 16 families, provided that each family unit has 4 members each. The shelter stations can host up to 23 families in normal conditions.
The available facilities in each cluster house also meet an appropriate standard. There are separate bathrooms for males and females, schools with adequate facilities, hospitals and community clinics with accommodation quarters for medical officials and their families on the top floors. The medical centers are well-equipped to meet a diverse set of medical needs. There are altogether 4 food storage warehouses to be used by people living in the cluster villages. There are 2 helipads for helicopters to land in case of emergencies, travel, or visits by officials, as well as 2 playing fields for physical activities. Buildings with proper and appropriate lodging and facilities are in place for accommodating visiting officials.
A Suitable Option for Temporary Resettlement
The observation and field visit also confirmed that there are several opportunities presented by the project that suggest that it may be a suitable option for the temporary settlement of Rohingya displaced peoples.
First, the infrastructure and basic facilities are of high quality in comparison to the current alternatives in Cox’s Bazar. There are very few facilities available like those provided by this project to shelter displaced peoples, both in Bangladesh and abroad. The Island has scope to diversify the income opportunities of the Rohingya. For example, the resettled population can have the option to raise cattle, or build poultry farms with coops for farming chicken, ducks, and pigeons. There are dedicated grazing areas for such cattle. These facilities for farming can help the Rohingya displaced people to diversify their livelihoods through rearing fresh produce. This is an option which is presently unavailable in the camps in Cox’s Bazaar, and other regions.
There is also a large freshwater lake for fish cultivation, with some smaller freshwater lakes near the clusters. The relocated people would therefore have the scope to cultivate fish and further improve their food sources. These opportunities would increase stability and improve the quality of life for the Rohingya displaced people.
Second, the drinking water for the project is supplied from an underground fresh water reserve, and is transferred directly to the houses. There are also ponds situated in the open areas in several of the clusters. These ponds have systems installed to collect additional rainwater and pump it to the homes when necessary. It is worth noting that the precise size of the underground water reserve has not yet been verified by officials.
Third, there is a waste management system is in place to redirect waste through a drainage structure into a landfill for management and processing, with plans for a biogas plant in the future. There are measures for the production of electricity through solar panels and generators in case of the need for emergency electricity. There are communication systems in place in the form of cell towers for the provision of prepaid services from popular mobile networks such as Grammenphone and Robi.
Pre-empting Environmental Disaster
One of the key issues raised by the expert who accompanied the research team is the potential for the environmental inundation of the island as a result of the project.
In line with this, a 9-foot-high embankment has been constructed, and a further project is underway to make it 19-feet-high. This would provide safety and security to the resettled inhabitants of the Island from any form of floods or cyclone damage.
The artificial measures taken to decrease the chances of erosion consist of a 3-staged system. At the first stage there is a line of wave breakers, followed by a line of low-elevation barriers featuring sandbags and low-walls, and finally, a line consisting of the main dams. One of the research team’s experts in Disaster Science and Management at the University of Dhaka explained that Bhasan Char island’s growth rate is currently much higher than the rate of erosion, and thus more and more land is surfacing above ground every year. The 3-staged system will also help to prevent any unexpected changes that might result from these two contrasting rates. Additionally, a mangrove forest line is kept around the embankment to act as a natural barrier against possible natural disasters.
Conclusion
The current conflict within groups of Rohinngya people in Cox’s Bazar is a security concern for Bangladesh as well as the local community. A security expert who accompanied the research team argues that the relocation of Rohnigya peoples to Bhasan Char would likely reduce the incidents of violence and conflict, as the proposed Ashrayan-3 project is isolated from others parts of the country, as well as surveillance from Bangladesh Navy.
Having considered the potential infrastructure and livelihood options, the Ashrayan-3 project in Bhasan Char would be a suitable place for the relocation of the Rohingya people. It has systems in place for all basic necessities for resettled people to live and function.
However, there is still room for improvement. For instance, the size of the underwater reserve must be verified, so that appropriate measures can be taken to guarantee a stable supply of freshwater. Also, the introduction of suitable early warning systems would help prepare the inhabitants of the island in addition to the already robust foundation of the housings and shelters. Lastly, proper maintenance of the embankment would help maintain the longevity of the entire island of Bhasan Char.
Md Rafiqul Islam Ph.D. is a Professor at the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Dhaka in Bangladesh and also one of Earth Refuge’s Regional Advisors. Dr. Islam’s primary research interests are peace and conflict studies, displacement and development. He also has a keen interest in global politics and security.
Sign up to our Earth Refuge newsletter for the latest updates on climate change, environmental justice and migration!
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.OkPrivacy policy
