A landmark case brought by six young Portuguese citizens in November 2020 against 33 signatory states to the 2015 Paris Agreement continues to gain momentum at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). In early May, the European Commissioner for Human Rights and a number of NGOs filed third party interventions to the Court in support of the applicants’ claim. Duarte Agostinho and Others v. Portugal and Others centers on the alleged violation of the applicants’ right to life (article 2) and right to respect for private and family life (article 8) as well as the prohibition of discrimination (article 14) due to the disproportional effects of climate change on younger generations. Due to the urgency of addressing climate change, the applicants won a legal battle confirming the court’s decision to fast-track the case.
The ECHR has constructed a notable body of case law which acknowledges the direct impact of certain environmental issues on human rights, and requires states to mitigate resulting violations of these rights. The ‘environmental admissibility criteria’ for the ECHR, established in Fadeyeva v Russia (2005), stipulates that interference on an applicant’s private life must be concrete and severe, a requirement which the applicants have already satisfied.
There is scientific and governmental consensus that climate change impacts human life, but a state’s legal obligation to mitigate the risk has yet to be established by the Court. By demonstrating causation between the defendant states’ greenhouse gas emissions and global warming induced heatwaves, the Duarte Agostinho case could set a new precedent for a state’s legal obligations to mitigate the effects of climate change. The third party interventions provide the Court with evidence linking national inaction on climate change to ensuing negative impacts on the applicant’s health and human rights.
The group of NGOs that recently filed supportive third party interventions includes Amnesty International, Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe, Germanwatch, Notre Affaire à Tous, and 2Celsius. These organisations have provided evidence supporting the claim that current national contributions will not reduce emissions to a level that will prevent global temperatures from rising above 2°C, in accordance with commitments of the Paris Agreement. According to Wendel Trio, Director of CAN Europe, “Current efforts by our governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are highly insufficient as the world is still heading for a temperature rise around 2.5°C, alarmingly above the objectives of the Paris Agreement.” The court should appreciate the expert knowledge on this subject as it waits for government defenses which are due by May 27th.
Refugee shelters are being destroyed as rains begin in Sudan. Thousands of Ethiopians fleeing violence in Tigray over the past few months have found themselves facing extreme weather conditions, from scorching heat to long rains.
Climate change is responsible for the unpredictable rainfall and high temperatures across Sudan’s arid and semi-arid areas. Sudan’s already vulnerable position has made combating climate change in the country difficult; conflict, poverty and displacement limit potential investment into climate mitigation or adaptation efforts.
The Sudanese government, the World Food Programme (WFP) and UN organisations (United Nations Development Programme), have made efforts to address the energy needs of refugees by creating sustainable conditions. For example, energy saving stoves and solar panels have been implemented to improve conditions for refugees. Plant drought-resistant plants are also providing food and greenery.
Despite such adaptation efforts, Sudan’s vulnerable position makes climate mitigation difficult. Preventative measures to protect refugees from further displacement and suffering are necessary to shield refugees from future floods and other climate disasters. Climate mitigation may only be possible in Sudan if vulnerability factors such as conflict and poverty are addressed, too.
On Tuesday 18th May, 2021, 6,000 migrants from Morocco swam and walked across the border to Spain. Video evidence showed Moroccan soldiers allowing migrants through security gates, sparking tensions between the two countries. The European Union stands in defence of Spain, condemning the mass incursion as a breach of borders. This comes following policy disputes over Western Sahara, which Spain maintains must be resolved via a United Nations agreement.
Migrants fled Morocco seeking economic opportunity, in pursuit of education or to flee poverty and human rights abuses. Unemployment in Morocco has been rising in recent years, with a significant rise of 2% as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Urban areas have been hit harder by unemployment compared to rural areas, although sectors across both have been affected. Whilst socio-economic crises and the pandemic are major causes of unemployment in Morocco, growing rural-urban migration – largely due to climate change, is also a factor.
Rising temperatures makes agricultural productivity more difficult. The High Commission for Planning (HCP) predicts that by 2050 only 15% of Morocco’s population will live in non-urban areas; this compares to 40% in 2018. With rural populations shrinking, (both water scarcity and floods causing a decline in agricultural production and an increase in poverty) a growing urban population needs employment.
Morocco has taken numerous commitments to combat climate change via adaptation initiatives such as the Green Generation 2020-2030 plan – to support the agricultural sector through water irrigation and reducing dependence on rain-fed farming. Water irrigation projects are expected to save 2.4bn metres of water by 2030. On-going protection of rural areas is vital for agricultural livelihoods that make up 34% of employment. The links between climate change, rural-urban domestic migration, unemployment and cross-border migration requires further investigation; such as the percentage of rural verses urban migrants leaving their home country, Morocco.
Climate-induced violence is rising in poverty-ridden regions across the earth, and women are being left in the shadows of its wrath.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, compounding variations in seasonality have resulted in an increased incidence of extreme weather events, acute environmental degradation, and a widespread decline in quality of life. With more than 95% of farmed land using rain-fed cultivation, these regions are heavily reliant on stable rainfall cycles to maintain annual agricultural yields. 1 In recent years, increasing severity in climate variability has magnified the intensity and frequency of flooding and drought, exacerbating issues of food insecurity and resource scarcity throughout the land.
Changes in climate disproportionately impact the livelihoods of women because they possess limited social control and ownership of land, and often serve as primary caregivers within their communities. They also face increased exposure to gender-based violence during periods of economic and environmental upheaval, as well as harmful discrimination in the labour market, making it difficult to generate alternative sources of income as needed.
Economic pressures have intensified with environmental disaster in many rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, driving hunger-based fatalities. In Angola, girls as young as the age of 12 are resorting to prostitution in order to avoid starvation. 2 Crisis coverage from the Thomas Reuters Foundation reports that “a girl might get 500 kwanzas ($1) for sex – enough to buy about a kilo of beans or two kilos of maize – but could get as little as 200 kwanzas.. Sometimes they earn as little as 5 RGT ($0.31) for one sexual encounter, which is .. not even enough to buy a loaf.” 3 These conditions simultaneously place girls at higher risk of sexual exploitation and human trafficking due to the subversive nature of the sex market.
In the Amboseli basin of southern Kenya, rising temperatures have caused rivers and grasslands to dry up, causing women and young girls to walk extensive distances to collect essential resources including firewood and water. 4 A field report conducted by the UN Africa Renewal program affirms that these tasks are both physically and mentally demanding, as it may take more than 20 hours per week to locate clean water, examine existing well levels, and carry the water home. 5 This process leaves young girls vulnerable to sexual assault and rape, whilst worsening the spread of infectious disease and infirmity within already weakened communities.
Environmental extremes also aggravate the prevalence of child marriage in various rural regions. The intensity and duration of recent dry spells have left countless families in dire need of basic resources, causing many to offer their daughters as brides to help ease financial stress. In rural districts of Malawi, “girls are forced sometimes to marry younger than 14. Some are impregnated by schoolteachers, some are forced to get married so the in-laws will bring bread and butter to their homes, others marry because of peer pressure. Especially when harvests are not good, these problems arise as girls are used to generate income.” 6
An increase in child marriage has further driven the practice of female genital mutilation (FGM), as this procedure is often carried out in preparation for marriage. Despite bans that have been implemented to prohibit both of these practices, researchers in northern Kenya have witnessed a climate-related surge in cases. 7 Throughout the 2020/2021 season, periods of prolonged drought were superseded by widespread locust outbreaks, resulting in deeper impoverishment and irreparable damage to livestock and crops. Despairing households succumbed to desperate measures, marrying off their daughters in exchange for dowries. 8
Girls who have undergone FGM are also perceived as more ‘valuable’ in comparison to those who remain uncut, inviting higher bride prices. Many families are able to circumvent the bans on these practices by shipping their daughters to neighboring countries where laws are less restrictive, and having them sent back prior to marriage. 9
In the absence of government intervention, rates of child marriage and FGM will continue to rise in synchronicity with environmental disaster and displacement. A severe lack of legal reinforcement and safeguarding services in regions across Sub-Saharan Africa is contributing to this endless cycle of gender-based violence. If vulnerable areas are left without stronger protection aid, this issue will only continue to worsen as levels of hunger and extreme weather events become more pervasive.
It is vital to draw deeper attention to the connections between climate change and violence against women and children in order to subvert the underground nature in which many of these practices are conducted. In addressing the impacts of climate-sensitive stresses, it is crucial to accentuate the various gender disparities inherent in a shifting ecological framework.
Rachel Aronoff recently graduated from UC Santa Barbara with a degree in English, and a specialization in Literature and the Environment. She is also certified in health and wellness coaching, personal training, and in the process of becoming a yoga instructor.
2. Batha, Emma. (2020) Cheap as bread, girls sell sex to survive hunger crisis in Africa. (2020). Thomas Reuters Foundation News. Retrieved May 24, 2021. https://news.trust.org/item/20200130182713-wao6m/
6. Climate change connections to HIV and AIDS. (2009). The Winds of Change: Climate change, poverty and the environment in Malawi, Oxfam International. Retrieved April 27, 2021. https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/winds-change
Climate activists from the youth climate group Sunrise Movement have been marching 400 miles from New Orleans to Houston, following the path of thousands of families who permanently fled New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The activists’ aim is to pressure President Biden into including a Civilian Climate Corps in his $2.26 trillion infrastructure plan, which will create good-paying jobs for young people within environmentally friendly careers.
Along the way the group is making stops in communities disproportionately affected by the climate crisis. At these stops the group will be holding protests and rallies, and will be joined by many figures including political leaders and environmental justice activists. One of these stops was St James parish, a community about an hour outside of New Orleans, where the group protested the proposed construction of a petrochemical complex. St James parish sits on an 85-mile industrial corridor along the Mississippi River, which has been dubbed “Cancer Valley” due to housing more than 150 chemical plants and oil refineries. Last year, the government approved permits for plastic company Formosa Plastics to build 14 plastic plants in St James parish.
Environmental justice group, Rise St James, has been leading the fight to block Formosa from building the facility in their community. The Sunrise Movement organised the protest along with Rise St James, to bring greater awareness to the issue. Researchers have found that if the proposed Formosa complex is built it would leave communities vulnerable to extreme flooding, due to the destruction of nearby wetlands. The facility is also expected to emit and discharge a variety of pollutants, including carcinogens, into the air and water. St James parish is a predominantly black community, and Varshini Prakash, the co-founder and executive director of Sunrise Movement, has described the situation as “the epitome of environmental racism”.
You can buy his book Climate Changed: Refugee Border Stories and the Business of Miseryhere.
Daniel Briggs is an experienced ethnographer and social researcher who has studied some of the most disturbing and challenging social realities of the 21st century. He is currently a part-time Professor of Criminology at Universidad Europea, and an award-winning author in the field of Criminology.
In this conversation with Yumna, he discusses what ethnographic research entails, and what led him to research and write ‘Climate Changed: Refugee Border Stories and the Business of Misery’, an honest, humane account about the rapid downsizing of the world’s natural resources and the consequences this has for millions who are displaced from their home countries because of politically-instigated and economically-justified war and conflict. The book is centred upon interviews with 110 refugees who arrived into Europe from 2015-2018 and observations of refugee camps, border crossings, inner-city slums, social housing projects, NGO and related refugee associations. Briggs sets this against the geopolitical and commercial enterprise that dismantled refugees’ countries in the international chase for wilting quantities of the world’s natural resources.
“… i counted about [200 people] in [Basmane Square] … and there was a boy, probably 2 years of age at the time…playing with a [discarded] lifejacket as if it were a toy with which he didn’t know how to play… You realise that actually, these people want everything you or I want in life: a safe place for their family to live, a job, and to not be terrorised. And I just thought to myself, “My God, that kid has no idea what has happened in his home country, no idea why he is sitting on a dirty pavement playing with a lifejacket…it really brings it home”
A recent report “Regional Assessment for South-Eastern Europe: Security implications of climate change” calls climate change a “risk multiplier” in South-Eastern Europe. This region, having been afflicted with wars throughout the 1990s, is already prone to border tensions and this new report anticipates that climate change will only amplify these existing tensions. In addition, South-Eastern Europe has been identified as one of the world’s “warming hot spots”. In a business as usual scenario, temperatures could rise by 4°C by 2100, and the number of drought days is forecasted to increase by 20% across the region.
Potential negative consequences of climate change to this region are highlighted by the report. Climate change can change the access to or availability of natural resources, resulting in increased competition both within and across borders. Climate-induced extreme weather events and disasters can aggravate political instability and put livelihoods at risk, which could lead to people being pushed to emigrate from the region or to turn to illegal sources of income.
The report highlighted that two of the region’s main sectors, agriculture and tourism, are “very climate-sensitive and are expected to be negatively affected by climate change, leading to a potential loss of livelihoods and jobs.” The report goes on to predict that “this could contribute to political discontent and pose challenges for political stability. In addition, negative climate change impacts could put pressure on vulnerable groups to migrate or to take up adverse livelihood strategies, including crime.”
Two of the main aims of this report were to identify potential climate-security hotspots in the South-Eastern Europe region, and develop and implement climate change and security risk reduction measures. The report identified a large number of potential transboundary hotspots that are of concern, including shared river basins, shared mountain ecosystems and mining areas. The report also identified two security challenges that are transboundary, but not geographically constrained, and will likely be exacerbated by climate change: mixed movements and emigration, and air pollution. A range of cooperation opportunities for each hotspot was established in the report, including advancing transboundary cooperation around nature protecting or mining hazards, and developing action plans for transboundary water management.
Recently, a German expert panel discussed the importance of fighting climate change in order to prevent a refugee crisis in Europe. It further stated that Germany should provide support to developing countries which are prone to environmental disasters, as a way of reducing the potential risk of forced migration in the future. Another solution the panel entertained was the concept of “climate passports”, which would ultimately allow refugees from disaster-struck areas to resettle in other countries. The climate passport proposed in the report is predicted to be primarily a legal form of protection for people living in island regions adversely affected by rising sea levels, and may protect 2.2 million people in the Indian and Pacific Ocean.
The report further called on Canada and the U.S. to share the burden on immigration, arguing that wealthy countries should commit to receiving a number of refugees which would make up 0.05% of their population. The Minister of the Interior of Germany also urged that we must all work together in tackling the impending crisis. The final report is planned for publication after the pandemic.
“We demand that Global North countries recognise climate migrants as such.”
– Xiye Bastida, youth climate activist, US Leaders Summit on Climate 2021
As climate activists demand accountability from powerful corporate and government actors, the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups is the imprint on the flipside of the climate justice coin. With climate change and human rights issues growing inseparable, activists are focusing their attention on vulnerable groups like farmers, women and people in poverty, especially in the Global South. An issue that encompasses all these groups is climate-induced displacement and migration.
‘Climate migration’ refers to the movement of people forced to leave, or choosing to leave their homes predominantly due to climate change impacts[1]. Slow onset climate change impacts that drive climate migration include crop failure, water shortage, and rising sea levels. These can pressure people to flee their homes either by rendering their livelihoods untenable (e.g. for farmers) or making their homes uninhabitable (e.g. due to sea level rise)[2]. Other sudden climate-induced events like flash floods and typhoons also drive temporary displacement.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that 80% of annual worldwide sudden onset natural disaster-induced displacement occurs in the Asia Pacific region, where income inequality, conflict, and regional connectivity are also major drivers of migration[3]. A 2010 report for the US National Intelligence Council predicted that climate change may induce cross-border movements of “Vietnamese and Indonesians to Malaysia, Cambodians and Laotians to Thailand, Burmese to Thailand and Malaysia, and Filipinos throughout the region”[4]. Within borders, coastal communities can feel the growing impacts of sea level rise, fish stock depletion and intensifying coastal storms, and may move inland away from the coasts. Nearby cities and urban areas with commerce, job opportunities, and family relations also serve as pull factors for displaced people[5].
LET’S TALK ABOUT IT
Climate migration remains on the fringe of discourse in the front-facing messages of some prominent climate movements, both in Southeast Asia and internationally. It is merely identified as one of many climate threats in cautionary messages about global warming, rather than a potential thrust of climate action. Mentions of climate migration or displacement usually take the form of standalone articles aiming to educate audiences about the urgency of climate change, such as those by Greenpeace US[6]. Extinction Rebellion US consolidates resources on climate change and migration on its website, directing users to news articles and research[7]. In news interviews, members of Klima Action Malaysia (KAMY), a Malaysia youth climate group, cite climate migration as one of the consequences of inaction[8].
Understandably, activists focus on solutions and opportunities that can lead to calls for action that their audiences can contribute to, and demands for governments and corporations. These are messages that feed into their positive imagination of a just transition and a climate-resilient future; but can climate migration be a part of that imagination?
The table below exhibits some examples of initiatives prioritised by these movements.
Organisation/initiative
Region/country
Main calls to action, demands or principles
Greenpeace International
International
‘Ways to Act’· Protect the Oceans· Tell your story· Stop plastic pollution· Join the movement for clean air· Prevent uncontrollable global fires· Raise your voice for climate justice
Sunrise Movement
United States
(Selected) principles· Stop climate change and create good-paying jobs in the process· People from all paths of life· Non-violence· Unite with other movements for change· Fight for the liberation of all people
Asia Climate Rally 2020
Asia
Demands· Climate action now· Defend our environmental defenders· Policies for the people and planet· Demand ambition, collaboration and accountability· Towards a just recovery
Youth Advocates for Climate Action Philippines (YACAP)
Philippines
‘Points of Unity’· Climate justice· Urgency of climate action· Defend our environmental defenders· Youth-led collective action· System change
Klima Action Malaysia (KAMY)
Malaysia
Demands· Inclusive and intersectional climate action· Serious political will· The right to climate information
Besides calling for accelerated reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, as shown in bold, most of these groups share a common thread on inclusiveness and climate justice — making sure that climate action considers the voice and well-being of all people, including vulnerable groups. It is evident that the protection of climate migrants does fall under the umbrella of inclusive climate action that is being championed by many activists; but it is discussed mostly insofar as minimising climate change can help to prevent climate displacement. The fact is that climate displacement is already happening. How does the current plight of climate migrants fit into the demand for a just transition?
A THREAT TO SECURITY?
Governments have already recognised the alleged security threat presented by climate migration for some years. The security-based narrative for approaching climate migration argues that instability in neighbouring countries can drive illegal migration, which can in turn exacerbate drug and arms trafficking and resource-related conflict[9]. This perspective uses self-interest as a credible motivation for governments, so integrating human rights and justice into such a mindset is a challenge. Some have responded to this security concern by advocating for a military strategy focusing on stronger border protection, but climate security expert Professor Lorraine Elliott warns this will instead likely increase instability and uncertainty, while further punishing those already vulnerable to the climate crisis[10]. In a report on climate migration, peacebuilding organisation International Alert stresses that “migration in itself need not be a destabilising factor… it is not the process, but the context and the political response to immigration that shape the risks of violent conflict”[11]. For example, in a study on Indonesian-Malaysian labour migration, researchers found that conflict was triggered when it shifted from “being perceived as an economic issue with potential gains for both countries” to a “political and security issue in which the interests of sending and receiving states were “viewed as threats to one another”[12].
INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT
In terms of internal displacement, case studies from the Philippines, Cambodia, and Indonesia have found inadequate institutional and legal provisions for the human rights of those affected by natural disasters — especially women, people with disabilities, and the elderly. Researchers’ recommendations included disaster risk management policies with specific guidelines on the treatment of vulnerable groups in compliance with international standards, as well as comprehensive laws enacting the rights of internally displaced people (IDPs) in accordance with the UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. In particular, it was pointed out that such policy development would be an opportunity to overcome patriarchal beliefs and “harness the knowledge and experiences of women”[13].
There is, then, a precedent for climate activists to apply the “justice” in “climate justice”, to garner greater empathy and equity in government responses to climate migrants. Professor Elliott does not support “simply mainstreaming climate change into security discourses”, but rather for “bottom-up policymaking” that aims to strengthen adaptation, social resilience, disaster risk management, and sustainable development strategies[14]. This is echoed by a 2018 World Bank report on internal climate migration, which recommends that governments actively embed climate migration into development planning and seek to improve their understanding of the issue itself[15].
A POSITIVE OUTLOOK
Climate activists also favour a positive framing of climate action, not just as the prevention of disaster, but as an opportunity for better lives. A campaign by the Singapore Climate Rally called #TakeBack2050 encouraged its audience to imagine what life would be like in 2050 after overcoming the climate crisis. Participants raised their hopes for community gardens, renewable energy, and a more equitable society[16]. This uplifting narrative has already been embraced by many world leaders. At the US Leaders’ Climate Summit in April 2021, Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc emphasised that transitioning to a net zero economy would “bring about huge opportunities and benefits, including jobs, ensuring energy security and enhancing economic competitiveness and sustainability”.
Such positivity can also be applied to climate migration. Former director of the Australian Migration Research Centre, Professor Graeme Hugo, argued that climate migration can help build resilience and adaptive capacity in vulnerable areas. Migration can benefit host and source countries through remittances, knowledge transfer, increased foreign direct investment and diaspora involvement in development and most certainly, benefit migrants themselves and their families. Migration has also contributed to poverty reduction in Southeast Asia[17]. Therefore, viewing climate migration as a development opportunity rather than just a coping response can maximise the benefits for all parties.
Paying greater attention to climate migration as a tenet of climate justice is well-aligned with the existing principles and demands of climate activists. While Global North activists can argue for the moral responsibility of developed countries to help climate migrants in and from developing countries; Southeast Asian countries, which are mostly developing, call for different tactics. Framing the issue as a pragmatic development opportunity can help avoid excessive security tensions around climate migration in a region already rife with political turmoil, and instead encourage the mainstreaming of climate migration into national planning. Southeast Asian climate activists repeatedly point out that their countries are already experiencing some of the most intense impacts of climate change, which disproportionately affect vulnerable groups; and these include climate displacement and migration. It is an issue which presents both the urgency and potential for climate activists to call upon governments and the international community to recognise the opportunities that fair and well-planned climate migration and displacement policies in Southeast Asia can establish beyond humanitarian responses.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not represent the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
Jiahui Qiu is a research officer at the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. She is a graduate in Environmental Studies from the National University of Singapore. Her interests include natural capital and ecosystem services, climate policy, and just transitions.
The latest research indicates that climate change could put a third of global food production at risk under high emission scenarios. According to this report, “[t]he most vulnerable areas are the ones at risk of leaving [Safe Climate Spaces] with low resilience to cope with the change, particularly South and Southeast Asia and Africa’s Sudano-Sahelian Zone. The Sudano-Sahelian Zone is a bioclimatic belt extending from the southern edge of the Sahara Desert into the Sub-Saharan savannahs of many African countries. In Ghana, worsening climatic conditions have already displaced many agricultural workers from the Sudano-Sahelian Zone in Ghana’s Upper West Region. The Water & Development Research Group at Aalto University indicated that these trends in agricultural migration, if planned for sustainably, could provide a solution to potential decreases in crop yields.
A study published in Nature Communications expands on the concept of ‘crop migration’ — whereby agricultural workers migrate to more suitable areas for cultivation, which mitigates damaging impacts of climate change on crop yield. But when unplanned, climate displacement creates refugees prone to higher rates of unemployment, homelessness, and poverty. The researchers conclude that crop migration is substantially responsible for maintaining crop yields in the face of changes to the climate sustained over the past few decades. But they warn that “continued migration may incur substantial environmental costs and will depend on socio-economic and political factors in addition to land suitability and climate.”
Current projections indicate that climate change is likely to raise global temperatures above the 2°C goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, climate change will have differing effects on agriculture in various regions. Shifts in the winemaking industry illustrate this phenomenon clearly. While grape cultivation is expanding to include regions that have historically been too cold, vineyards in California and Australia have been devastated by wildfires which have displaced agricultural workers. While crop migration can help maintain current levels of agricultural production, the lack of supportive policy leads to unsustainable outcomes for migrants. Without such policies, current trends in crop migration could collapse, resulting in more climate refugees and reduced global agricultural production.
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