3 June 2021 – by Evelyn Workman
A recent report “Regional Assessment for South-Eastern Europe: Security implications of climate change” calls climate change a “risk multiplier” in South-Eastern Europe. This region, having been afflicted with wars throughout the 1990s, is already prone to border tensions and this new report anticipates that climate change will only amplify these existing tensions. In addition, South-Eastern Europe has been identified as one of the world’s “warming hot spots”. In a business as usual scenario, temperatures could rise by 4°C by 2100, and the number of drought days is forecasted to increase by 20% across the region.
Potential negative consequences of climate change to this region are highlighted by the report. Climate change can change the access to or availability of natural resources, resulting in increased competition both within and across borders. Climate-induced extreme weather events and disasters can aggravate political instability and put livelihoods at risk, which could lead to people being pushed to emigrate from the region or to turn to illegal sources of income.
The report highlighted that two of the region’s main sectors, agriculture and tourism, are “very climate-sensitive and are expected to be negatively affected by climate change, leading to a potential loss of livelihoods and jobs.” The report goes on to predict that “this could contribute to political discontent and pose challenges for political stability. In addition, negative climate change impacts could put pressure on vulnerable groups to migrate or to take up adverse livelihood strategies, including crime.”
Two of the main aims of this report were to identify potential climate-security hotspots in the South-Eastern Europe region, and develop and implement climate change and security risk reduction measures. The report identified a large number of potential transboundary hotspots that are of concern, including shared river basins, shared mountain ecosystems and mining areas. The report also identified two security challenges that are transboundary, but not geographically constrained, and will likely be exacerbated by climate change: mixed movements and emigration, and air pollution. A range of cooperation opportunities for each hotspot was established in the report, including advancing transboundary cooperation around nature protecting or mining hazards, and developing action plans for transboundary water management.
