Category: News May 2021

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Sea-Level Rise Halved if Global Warming Limited to 1.5 Degrees Celsius

11 May 2021 – by Atoosa Gitiforoz

A recently published study by the Nature journal shows that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius ‘would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise’. The world currently, is on track to warm three degrees Celsius by 2100.

This study projects that reducing greenhouse emissions in line with pledges made under the Paris Agreement would have almost halved land ice contribution to sea level in 2100. This halving is demonstrated across three ice sources:

The ice sheet mass loss in Greenland would reduce by 70%, glacier mass losses would roughly halve and Antarctica would see little difference between different emissions scenarios, ‘owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of snowfall accumulation and ice loss.’

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest ice land and its melting is accelerating. Models are used to project the contribution of land ice to sea-level rise, but they cannot explore all outcomes due to uncertain projections, and use up large amounts of computational power. In the most extreme ice sheet loss scenario, Antarctic loss may be up to five times higher – increasing the median sea level to 42cm under current pledges.

Rises in sea level strongly influences the migration of people; 1 billion people may become climate refugees by 2050, largely due to melting ice caps, sea level rises, rising temperatures, drought and catastrophic effects of climate change. A recent study by Harvard University states that West Antarctic ice sheet melting may cause sea levels to rise higher than previously thought. New predictions say that in the case of complete ice sheet collapse, sea levels would rise by an additional 30% (within the next 1,000 years) than previous estimates.

Whilst estimating the number of climate migrants is difficult due to future changes in carbon emissions and coastal-adaptation choices, climate disasters currently do influence migration. Rising sea levels will inevitably lead to land becoming uninhabitable and hence increased displacement. The study published by Nature pointing to a global warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius having such as substantial impact on land ice contribution to sea levels, highlights how much damage and suffering can be averted through on-going efforts at mitigating climate change.

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Impact of Sea-level Rise on Migration in Bangladesh

10 May 2021 – by Hazal Yilmaz

A new study suggests that movement, especially in low-lying coastal areas, induced by sea-levels rising may trigger a migration wave that will affect around 1.3 million Bangladeshi by 2050.

The mathematical model in the study considers the sequential impact of migration, with respect to the interaction between migrants and residents, by evaluating economic factors alongside human behaviour. The predictions revealed by the model are that primarily the southern regions of the country will be affected and as a result 64 different districts may be subject to forced displacement. According to the American Geophysical Union, there is even a possibility that migrants may also displace existing residents.

The predictions for the capital city of Dhaka in particular stipulate that the population of the city will first increase, before it will be met with a decline due to overcrowding. Furthermore, foreseeing the potential paths of migration through the model may also help in the prevention of conflicts and resource shortages through apt preparations.

The authors of the study submit that using predictive models should guide all future decisions on climate migration, whether with relation to sea level rise, or other natural disasters such as earthquakes, droughts and forest fires.

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Brazilian Supreme Court Backs Indigenous Community in the Fight for Ancestral Territory

6 May 2021 – by Evelyn Workman

A landmark decision in the fight for the rights of Brazil’s Indigenous communities has been made by the country’s Supreme Federal Court (STF). STF judges have agreed to review a 2014 ruling which cancelled the demarcation of ancestral territory of the Guarani Kaiowá Indigenous people. The court came to this conclusion because the 2014 ruling hadn’t included input from the Indigenous community.

The Guyraroká territory, in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul, was recognized as an Indigenous territory in 2004, and the demarcation process of the territory began in 2009. However, in 2014, STF judges ruled that the Guarani Kaiowá had no legal claim to the territory because they were not living there in 1988, when the Brazilian Constitution was adopted.

This latest STF ruling doesn’t overturn the 2014 ruling to cancel the demarcation of the territory, however the case does set an important precedent for other similar cases involving Indigenous land rights.

This recent ruling is important in the current political climate as it marks a push back against the devastation Indigenous communities have faced during the Bolsonaro administration. In recent years President Jair Bolsonaro’s government has pushed to open up Indigenous land to mining, ranching and logging, the biggest attack on Indigenous communities in decades. Bolsonaro has made clear his opposition for Indigenous land demarcation, therefore this STF ruling marks a setback for his administration.

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Community-Based Research Offers Indiginised Solutions for Residents of Alaska’s Kotzebue Sound

4 May 2021 – by Ben St. Laurent

Researchers from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory are nearing the end of a five year community based research project designed to study the effects of climate change on sea ice and marine life in Alaska’s Kotzebue Sound. For years, members of the Ikaaġvik Sikukun research project have monitored geophysical changes in sea ice from unmanned aerial systems. In an article published by the university, lead researcher Christopher Zappa spoke with Columbia News about the findings and novel framework of the research project.

While designing the project, researchers convened an ‘Indigenous Expert Advisory Council’, and met with community leaders who have become increasingly concerned with the impacts of climate change on their communities. The team discussed with the community how changes in sea ice were shortening the traditional hunts their lifestyle depends on. According to Zappa, the community based model “grounds the work in the interests of the local stakeholders”, and will provide indiginised solutions to local climate risks. 

Zappa told Columbia News that the research team used insight they gained from indigenous communities to direct their research at studying the “river and ocean interaction, and how the ice behaves” in the Kotzebue Sound. Indigenous communities contributed more than just insight, providing researchers with decades of data which they’ve kept on ice conditions in the region. Zappa hopes that the research, which will soon be fully analysed, not only helps scientists understand the impact of climate change in the region, but also offers useful insights for indigenous communities that enables them to maintain their way of life. Columbia News reports that Zappa and a number of his colleagues are interested in replicating this type of projects with other communities in the region.

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Support to Refugees Key to Climate Disaster Resilience

3 May 2021 – by Atoosa Gitiforoz

The United Nations Refugee Agency has called on states to provide refuge to people displaced by climate change and to contribute to efforts at improving the resilience of at-risk states to future disasters. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), weather-related incidents have lead to an average of 21.5 million new displacements every year over the past decade. It is estimated that this figure could rise to 200 million by 2050.

The majority of displaced peoples as a result of climate disasters remain within their country’s borders, often in dangerous weather conditions. Only a small number seek international refuge. Over 1 billion people live in climate-related hazardous conditions where climate resilience is weak. Weather events such as storms and floods were responsible for around 95% of disaster displacements in 2019. 

Factors exacerbated by climate change

Other drivers of displacement like poverty, food insecurity, conflict, and political and socio-economic factors are often exacerbated by climate change. Countries that currently face these issues are the least prepared for the impact of climate change.

Food insecurity affects 80% of displaced people worldwide. Climate change can decrease crop yields and food production by damaging land and creating dry conditions. Increased prices as a result then lead to an increase in poverty. Water scarcity as a result of climate change is also linked to increased risk of flooding in other areas of land. The ability of conflict areas to respond to climate disasters is limited due to an existing strain on government resources, leaving little room for recovery. This is why it is evermore important for conflict areas at risk of climate change to develop resilience ahead of disasters. Conflict areas are in a major position of risk to the aftermath of climate disasters due to limited safe land and a pre-existing burden on government resources, leaving little room for recovery.

Vulnerable states and regions identified by the UNHCR

The United Nations Refugee council draws attention to the vulnerability of Central America, The Sahel, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Mozambique.

The Dry Corridor refers to the area of Central America where droughts and floods occur, creating displacement and damage to agriculture. In 2020, two hurricanes devastated the region, impacting at least 8 million people.  

In the Sahel region, there are over 2 million internally displaced people (IDP) – 1 million in Burkina Faso alone – where armed groups have exploited tension in poor, drought effected areas. Likewise in Somalia, where 2.9 million are internally displaced, climate change impact has also intertwined with conflict: the militant group, Al-Shabab, has exploited economic hardships caused by drought to boost recruits.

In Yemen, the enduring conflict limits abilities to combat issues brought by climate change, and the country’s experience of flash floods and shorter seasons is contributing to existing food poverty. IDPs in Yemen are four times more likely to suffer from food insecurity.

Afghanistan has endured conflict as well as floods and drought, alongside population growth. These events have led to economic instability, escalating conflict, dry conditions, and a reduction of access to humanitarian aid. It is estimated that about half of Afghanistan’s population of 38 million suffered food insecurity in the first quarter of 2021.

Climate change has worsened Bangladesh’s tropical storms and floods, and the frequency and intensity of these cyclones and floods have devastated the Rohyingya refugee shelters, further displacing them.

In Mozambique, Cyclone Idai, Cyclone Kenneth and Storm Chalane, and Cyclone Eloise – all of which occurred in the space of two years (2019-21) have caused displacement and significant damage to the country’s infrastructure. Pre-existing violence and conflict hampered Mozambique’s recovery. By the end of 2020, 670,000 people from Northern Mozambique had been forced from their homes, as well as 1 million people in need of emergency humanitarian aid.

UNHCR climate efforts

In January 2020, as part of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees’ (UNHCR) climate action agenda, a Special Advisor for Climate Action was appointed. The three main areas of focus for this agenda are: Law and Policy, Operations, and UNHCR’s environmental footprint.

‘Law and Policy’ includes providing legal advice and guidance to states regarding the protection of refugees and IDPs from climate change. Operations involve supporting countries to better prepare ahead of and respond to climate disasters. For example, fast-growing trees, alternative energy sources for cooking, and first responder training were implemented by the UNHCR and its partners to help Rohingya refugees. Its environmental footprint has been improved via initiatives such as ‘The Green Box’ initiative to install energy meters across UNHCR offices linked to a global dashboard which monitors power consumption and suggests alternative energy sources. The UNHCR’s emphasis is on providing early support and help to at-risk states – key to preventing a costly and devastating impact from climate change and reducing the number of displaced peoples