Category: Current Affairs

Posted on

Global Warming Will Push Billions Into Dangerous Heat

A Saguaro cactus at sunrise

2 June 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

Global warming will soon push billions of people into living in “unprecedented” heat that threatens human survival, according to new research, with entire countries becoming dangerously hot. 

Various models used by the researchers found that as many as two billion people could be living in dangerously hot conditions by 2070 – just 37 years from now. 

While some of those models were upper estimates, even if the world continues warming at its current rate, two billion people will be left in dangerous heat by the end of the century.

“For every 0.1°C of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat,” said University of Exeter professor Tim Lenton, one of the leaders of the research.

“This reveals both the scale of the problem and the importance of decisive action to reduce carbon emissions.”

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – the goal set out in the Paris Agreement – rather than the 2.7°C that the world is on a path to reach would mean “five times fewer people in 2100 being exposed to dangerous heat,” says Lenton. 

Another lead researcher, Professor Marten Scheffer at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, said that the rising temperatures could lead “a billion or so” people to consider migrating to cooler places. 

The study, published in May, is said to be the first of its kind to treat all humans equally. Until now, research has calculated harm caused by the climate crisis in monetary terms – with rich people having more to lose. Research has also typically valued those living now more highly than those living in the future.

“This is unethical,” says the study. “When life or health are at stake, all people should be considered equal, whether rich or poor, alive or yet to be born.”

The study identified the “climate niche” in which most humans exist, with the majority of humans living in average temperatures around two peaks of 13°C or 27°C.

Very few people have historically lived in average temperatures of 29°C or above, which is what the study defined as the upper limit for humans’ climate niche. Living in such temperatures increases deaths, migration and conflict – among a raft of other bad side effects. 

A figure from the study

The study estimates that global warming has to date pushed more than 600 million people outside the temperature niche.

India and Nigeria are already showing “hotspots” of increased exposure to extreme heat. At the current rate of warming, it is predicted that India will have 600 million people and Nigeria 300 million people living outside of the niche by 2070. 

By that time some entire countries, including Burkina Faso and Mali, will be exposed to average temperatures of 29°C or above. 

Worst-case scenarios of around 3.6 °C or even 4.4 °C global warming could put half of the world population outside the niche by the end of the century, which the study says poses an “existential risk” to humanity. 

The study did not consider exposure to other sources of climate harm, including sea-level rise, which United Nations secretary general António Guterres recently warned could lead to migration on a “biblical” scale. 

Posted on

The European Union Passes a Groundbreaking Law to Reduce EU-Driven Deforestation and Forest Degradation

an aerial view of a dirt road in the middle of a forest

30 May 2023 – by Ella Kiyomi Dobson

Agriculture is the most significant contributor to deforestation globally. Commodities linked most greatly with deforestation are cocoa, palm oil, timber, rubber, cattle, coffee, and their derivative products (leather, chocolate, and furniture). The EU import of these agricultural products is the second largest contributor to deforestation globally, after China. As a result, the European Union proposed the Regulation to curb EU-driven deforestation and forest degradation in November 2019 to rectify its contribution to the degradation of some of our world’s most important ecosystems. The passing of the law in the April 2023 European Union plenary session means the law will come into effect in the coming days. 

This law requires operators to collect geographic coordinates of where the commodity was produced. The law will allow a strict-level of traceability to ensure that products entering the EU market are sourced from deforestation-free areas. This law is the world’s first to tackle deforestation and curb the impact deforestation has, particularly on indigenous communities whose livelihoods depend on forest ecosystems. More importantly, it tackles legal deforestation and illegal deforestation, which sets this law apart from other global initiatives. By sanctioning legal deforestation, the EU hardens the environmental protection level rather than other countries that may lower environmental protections to sell products on the European market. In addition, the EU Commission has proposed Forest Partnerships for producing countries to support a just transition to sustainable value chains. Partnerships with these producing countries would create socio-economic opportunities for people living in communities reliant on agricultural output for their livelihoods. 

This law is groundbreaking, could have wide-reaching impacts, reduce carbon emissions by 31.9 million metric tons a year, and reduce the number of communities displaced by agricultural expansion. This ambitious regulation has direct environmental and social implications and impetus for other nations to follow suit. For example, in the US, the FOREST Act was drafted by lawmakers in 2021. With similar but less stringent parameters, this act would sanction those companies involved in “illegal” deforestation. However, with Republicans taking control over Congress in November 2022, there are fears the Forest Act will be blocked. With the passing of this EU regulatory law, there will be pressure on the US government to sanction products coming from regions with continued forest degradation. If India, China, the US and Japan followed the EU’s footsteps, “75% of the world’s imported deforestation could be eliminated”. This law is the first of its kind, but hopefully a stepping stone for improving biodiversity loss, human displacement, and CO2 emission outputs.

Posted on

Imperial Oil Leak: Negligence Towards Indigenous Communities

smoke going out on pipe during golden hour

30 May 2023 – by Ella Kiyomi Dobson

Two leaks from an Imperial Oil  tailings pond in Alberta, Canada, occurred in May 2022 and again in January 2023. Imperial Oil did not report the first spill to Athabaskan Chipewyan First Nations and Northwest Territories government officials until the second spill occurred nine months later. The Alberta Freedom of Information Act of 2015 requires companies to notify the public of environmental or public health and safety risks within 24 hours; this incident was a clear breach of this agreement.

First Nations have a large hunting and fishing presence in the Athabasca River and its connected tributaries. As a result of the failure of Imperial Oil to notify the public, First Nations were harvesting and collecting water from contaminated regions for nine months. The seepage contained high levels of iron, sulphates, and arsenic, among other toxins. This reporting error represents a massive breach of trust between the Indigenous communities, the oil industries, and the Alberta Energy Regulator. While the CEO of Imperial Oil has apologised for the incident and stated they are working tirelessly to prevent further leaks, some community members feel they may have to leave their homes due to health risks. 

Federal inspectors have ordered Imperial Oil to stop the leak and take measures to prevent future incidents. However, this is not the first time Imperial Oil has been found in violation of environmental regulations. In July 2022, another wastewater leak in the Northwest Territories, not far from the Kearl Pond sites, led to the closure of the pipeline at Norman Wells. In 2021, they failed to disclose contamination in over 200 locations in Saskatchewan, some of which they had known were contaminated for years. These are just two examples of repeated incidents in which Imperial Oil has failed the communities that neighbour their operations by allowing harmful incidents to occur and, consequently, not communicating such harms to those involved. 

The impact of the oil sands industry on Indigenous communities is often overlooked in discussions of the industry’s economic benefits. For Imperial Oil, 2022 saw record earnings and cash flow. However, First Nations rely on the Athabasca River for their livelihoods, and incidents like this highlight the importance of recognizing the environmental and social harms of oil sands extraction. It is imperative that the oil sands industry takes a more proactive approach to environmental stewardship and engages in genuine consultation with Indigenous communities, whose land they have directly benefited from, to ensure their well-being is the highest priority. Until this paradigm shift happens, marginalised communities worldwide remain most at risk from these extractive industries. 

Posted on

Mediterranean Heatwave Considered “almost impossible” Without Impacts of Climate Change

bokeh photography of thermometer on plant

15 May 2023 – by Willy Phillips

Since mid-April 2023, the Mediterranean region has experienced record-breaking sustained 40-degree Celsius temperatures due to an unprecedented heatwave. The uncharacteristically hot and dry spring has led to wildfires, droughts, and water shortages, affecting millions of people in countries such as Spain, Morocco, and Italy. The heatwave, described as the most severe in recent history, has quickly captured scientists’ and citizens’ attention.

According to experts studying the phenomenon, the heatwave would be “almost impossible” without the current climate crisis and the resulting atmospheric changes. A study from the World Weather Attribution found that the increase in global temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions was the primary cause of the heat wave. The report further states that if no mitigatory efforts are taken, such heat waves will become more frequent and intense, leading to severe consequences for the region’s ecosystems, resources, and people.

The European Space Agency (ESA) monitors the Mediterranean region and has reported that a marine heatwave, understood as “extreme rises in ocean temperature over an extended period of time,” also affects the Mediterranean Sea. The recent heatwave has caused the sea’s surface temperature to rise, leading to the expansion of harmful algal blooms and the death of marine life. The ESA has also reported that the marine heatwave has affected the region’s fisheries and tourism industries, leading to significant economic losses.

The heatwave hit Spain and Morocco the hardest, with temperatures reaching 45 degrees Celsius. As a result, severe wildfires have torn through the regions, destroying forests and homes, forcing thousands of people to evacuate. The temperature spikes have also worsened water shortages in the area, with some cities resorting to water rationing.

The Mediterranean heatwave is a warning sign that the varied effects of climate change may be upon us. Moreover, it highlights the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prioritize human longevity as extreme temperatures, droughts, and wildfires become more significant threats to humanity. 

Posted on

US Coastline Experiencing “Unprecedented” Sea Level Rise

Flooding in the US state of Louisiana in 2016

19 April 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

An “unprecedented” rise in sea levels on the US southeastern and Gulf Coasts is fuelling catastrophic flooding, according to new research  – with one study finding the trend represents a threat to “national security.” 

Two studies published in the last two months paint an alarming picture for the millions of Americans living on those coastlines, including in major cities such as Miami, New Orleans and Houston. 

One study published in Nature by researchers from Tulane University, New Orleans, found that sea levels have risen roughly a centimetre per year on the southeastern and Gulf Coasts since 2010 – around 12 centimetres in total.

The researchers said this was “unprecedented in at least 120 years.”

By comparison, global sea levels have risen around 3.6 millimetres annually since the early 1990s, according to figures from the US Environmental Protection Agency. 

The study found that the drastic sea level rise was caused by an unfortunate combination of man-made global warming and natural variations in the system of currents in the Atlantic. 

This rise has led to “exponential increases” in flooding and “increased damages due to major storms such as hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, and the prospect of accelerating land loss in the most vulnerable settings.”

The study says these examples illustrate that further increases in the rate of sea level rise, particularly rapid ones, “threaten the national security of the US”.

Another study published last month in the Journal of Climate by a team from the University of Arizona also found a “rapid” acceleration of sea level rise along the same coastlines since 2010, an “extreme” departure from the long-term trend. 

This coincided with “record-breaking” North Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent years, the study found. As in the other study, researchers found worsened coastal flooding due to the storms and exacerbated the damage caused. Last year’s Hurricane Ian racked up around US$113 billion in damages in the US alone. 

United Nations secretary general António Guterres recently warned that rising sea levels could cause climate migration on a “biblical scale”. And this is not limited to developing nations. One of the US states included in the recent studies, Louisiana, is already the home of what are reportedly the first climate migrants in the country.

Another recent study found that US households on the Atlantic coast are moving inland following natural disasters, but people on lower incomes are being left behind.

Posted on

Vanuatu Scores “Milestone” Win For Climate Justice in UN Vote

UN General Assembly

18 April 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

The UN General Assembly has passed a “milestone” resolution, championed by the tiny island nation of Vanuatu, seeking an opinion from the world’s top court on countries’ legal obligations to address the climate crisis. 

The 29 March resolution asks the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to say what the “legal consequences” are for states that, “by their acts and omissions,” have caused significant harm to the climate. 

Advisory opinions issued by the ICJ, such as the one sought in this resolution, are not legally binding. They can however carry great moral weight and influence governments and judges internationally. 

The resolution was, remarkably, born in a Pacific island classroom four years ago. After campaigning by student activists, Vanuatu, an archipelago of roughly 80 islands in the southeastern Pacific, agreed in 2021 to champion the petition. It went on to spearhead a “core group” of 17 countries from around the world who supported the resolution.

Ultimately, it received the support of more than 120 countries in the General Assembly, the main policy-making organ of the UN. 

Ishmael Kalsakau, prime minister of Vanuatu, which was last month hit by two category four cyclones within three days, said the vote represented “a win for climate justice of epic proportions.”

He said the “historic resolution is the beginning of a new era in multilateral climate cooperation, one that is more fully focused on upholding the rule of international law and an era that places human rights and intergenerational equity at the forefront of climate decision-making.”

Other states including Costa Rica, Papua New Guinea and Bangladesh hailed the resolution as a “milestone” for climate justice. 

Cynthia Houniuhi, president of the Pacific Island Students Fighting Climate Change, the group that helped bring the resolution to global attention, said they are “ecstatic that the world has listened to the Pacific Youth and has chosen to take action.”

The push to adopt the resolution had also received star power backing in the shape of legendary US actor and activist Jane Fonda.   

Not everyone was happy. The United States, whose “climate president” Joe Biden had days earlier approved a huge oil drilling project in Alaska, shied away from having a judicial process to hold states’ feet to the fire on climate obligations – calling for a “diplomatic” approach. 

The need for urgent action to address the climate crisis was once again thrown into sharp relief recently by the latest report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That report, which synthesised the findings of five earlier reports, found that there is a “rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.”

Posted on

6 Million Displaced from Earthquake in Turkey and Syria

a car is parked in front of a destroyed building

12 April 2023 – by Willy Phillips

Update on the February earthquake in Turkey and Syria 

In Turkey and Syria, earthquake rescue efforts shift to housing crisis as countless call refugee camps home.

On February 6th, 2023, two historic earthquakes struck Syria and Turkey. In the past 65 days, refugee camps and impromptu shelters have filled the streets. The first 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit near the Turkish city of Gaziantep, followed a few hours later by a second 7.5 magnitude event centered in the Elbistan district, a mere 80 miles away. Two weeks later, a 6.4 magnitude event hit the city of Antakya, a Turkish town nestled between the Mediterranean Sea and the Syrian border.

Since February, the attitude surrounding the disaster has shifted from search and rescue to providing essential resources for those impacted, particularly concerning the housing crisis. The British Red Cross estimates this disaster affected over 26 million people, displaced 6 million, killed 50,000, and injured 100,000.

In addition to the unfathomable number of casualties, many buildings crumbled atop the seismic activity. Along with the stresses of war on infrastructure, poor building design is cited as the primary reason for such extensive damage. 160,000 buildings, holding over 500,000 apartment units, collapsed in on themselves in whites known as a ‘pancake collapse‘. Nearly 200 builders, contractors, and building owners have been arrested on suspicion of ignoring updated and more costly building codes during construction. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has promised weary citizens accountability as concerns over infrastructure stability and longevity continue to rise.

International aid provision has been substantial, as 94 countries have contributed finances, supplies, and on-ground assistance. While over 140,000 volunteers have assisted thus far, impacted areas are still stricken with displacement and a lack of essential resources. Aid efforts now focus on housing, as an estimated 1.5 million people need shelter. Many have taken to the streets, establishing themselves in impromptu shelters while waiting for rebuilding efforts to begin. In the immediate future, however, refugee camps will become home for those unable to reside elsewhere. 

Posted on

Glacial Lake Flooding Threatens Millions Worldwide 

30 March 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

Fifteen million people worldwide are threatened by devastating flooding from glacial lakes, new research has found. 

The study, led by a team at Newcastle University, calls for “urgent” action to help avert future deaths from such floods. 

Deaths can be caused either directly by the floods, which are “highly destructive and can arrive with little prior warning,” or by damage to property, infrastructure and agricultural land. 

More than half of the globally exposed population live in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru and China. 

Much like other natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes, floods from glacial lakes represent not just a threat to life but a major displacement risk for millions worldwide.

Last year, a glacial lake in Pakistan burst its banks and wiped out a bridge downstream, as well as damaging nearby homes and two powerplants. 

Melting Himalayan glaciers have also been identified as having fuelled last year’s devastating floods in Pakistan, which left a third of the country underwater. Those floods reportedly displaced over 32 million people. 

This study was the first to try and map where people are most at risk from “glacial lake outburst floods,” as they are known.

Since 1990, the study says that the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population. This is because glaciers are shrinking due to global warming. 

The lakes, which form in hollowed out glacier beds or on top of existing glaciers, can also trigger “positive feedbacks” causing further ice loss. 

The study found that 15 million people live within 50 kilometres of a glacial lake, placing them at risk from flooding. In Asia, a region where there is likely to be little warning of flooding or certainty as to how powerful floods will be, one million people live within one kilometre of such lakes. 

Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region is most vulnerable to such flooding. However the study also said that a lack of research on flood risk in the Andes “urgently” requires attention, with the second- and third-most dangerous basins found in Peru and Bolivia. 

The study said improvements to early warning systems such as time lapse cameras for flooding are “urgently needed,” alongside other measures such as evacuation drills. 

Posted on

UN Chief: Rising Seas Risk “Biblical” Levels of Migration

23 March 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

United Nations secretary general António Guterres has warned that rising sea levels could cause climate migration on a “biblical scale”, with the current rate of global warming representing a  “death sentence” for entire countries.

Addressing the 15-member UN Security Council in New York last month, Guterres once again sounded the alarm bell for the “unthinkable” consequences of rapidly melting ice sheets and glaciers. 

Antarctica and the Greenland ice cap are now between them losing 420 billion tons of ice mass annually according to US space agency NASA, he said. 

The resulting sea level rise could cause low-lying communities and entire countries to “disappear forever,” Guterres told the Council. There would also be “ever-fiercer competition for fresh water, land and other resources.”

Addressing the “root cause” of rising seas, the climate crisis, Guterres said the world is currently “hurtling past the 1.5°C warming limit that a liveable future requires” — a limit that would still see sizeable sea-level rise.

“Every fraction of a degree counts,” said Guterres. “If temperatures rise by 2 degrees, that level rise could double”. Currently the world is “careening towards 2.8°C — a death sentence for vulnerable countries.” 

“Under any scenario,” Guterres said that countries like Bangladesh, China, India and the Netherlands are all at risk. And mega-cities on every continent will face “serious impacts”, including Lagos, London, Mumbai, New York and Buenos Aires. 

The danger is “especially acute” for nearly 900 million people who live in coastal zones at low elevations, said Guterres. “That is one out of ten people on earth.” 

Guterres stressed that the effects of global warming are already being felt. Himalayan melts have worsened flooding in Pakistan, he said, while also citing flooding in West Africa, such as that suffered recently in Nigeria.  

The impacts of rising seas must also be addressed, including international refugee law, he said. “People’s human rights do not disappear because their homes do.” 

The International Law Commission had last year considered a “range of potential solutions” to the problems caused by rising sea levels, including continuing statehood despite loss of territory, ceding or assigning portions of territory to an affected state, or even establishing confederations of states.

Guterres’ latest dire warning on the climate comes as even half-hearted efforts to address global warming have been hampered by the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which have diverted political attention from the issue. 

Last year, he said the world was “sleepwalking to climate catastrophe”, with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C – as set out in the 2015 Paris agreement – on “life support”. 

Posted on

A “Dangerous Link”: Climate-Fuelled Violence in the Lake Chad Basin

Lake Chad in Nigeria's northeastern Borno State

1 March 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

A new report has found climate change is fuelling violence that has led to the displacement of over 5 million people in the Lake Chad Basin, calling for action that recognises the “dangerous link” between the issues. 

Refugees International released a report in January arguing that the influence of climate change on conflict and displacement in the basin has been “ignored for too long”. 

Governments and agencies need to “move beyond” an approach that focuses only on regional security, according to the US-based NGO. “That approach not only misses the worsening impacts of climate change and displacement but overlooks how they fuel insecurity.”

The Lake Chad Basin serves as an important source of freshwater and fish as well as a trading hub for the four countries that share its shores: Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger.  

However for the last 13 years the region around the lake in all four countries has been ravaged by conflict and violence. The UN estimates that 24 million people are now affected by the crisis, with around 5.3 million displaced. 

In its report, Refugees International says the crisis and displacement caused are often “viewed through the lens of regional security” – including attacks by Islamist groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria. 

But the report argues that the uptick in conflict and displacement has been fuelled by increased competition for land, water and food as a result of global warming.  

A “prime example” of this came in Cameroon in 2021, when climate-driven scarcity triggered tensions between fishing, farming and herding communities – resulting in an “eruption of violence”. Around 60,000 Cameroonians sought refuge in neighbouring Chad as a result. 

The report called for a then-upcoming summit on the Lake Chad Basin, which took place last month, to “address the nexus of climate change, violence and displacement” as part of its plan for stabilising the region. 

Speaking at the conference, Niger’s foreign minister Hassoumi Massoudou acknowledged that action taken so far seems “very far from the reality” of the needs of those being exposed to the “cumulative effects of insecurity and climate change.”

Over US$500 million in aid was pledged at the conference, although this sum is far short of the estimated US$1.8 billion the UN has said is required.