Category: Current Affairs

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Wildfires Burn Across Siberia as Russia Launches Marketplace for Forestry Investors to Earn Carbon Credits

silhouette of trees during sunset

6 October 2021 – by Ben St. Laurent

Wildfires that began earlier than usual within Russia’s Sakha Republic, typically known for its record cold temperatures and permafrost, are responsible for unprecedented levels of carbon emissions. According to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), the fires worsened through June and July, and continue to burn across northeastern Siberia later in the season than usual. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) reported that data from CAMS suggests wildfires in the Sakha Republic have released approximately 800 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent by mid August. 

These fires have also been recognised for their indirect impacts on the Earth’s climate by reducing the capability of Russia’s boreal forest to act as a major carbon sink for Russia and the potential for their smoke to settle on arctic sea ice and accelerate its melting process. Considering recent extreme wildfires across the globe, David Bowman, a fire ecologist at the University of Tasmania, expects that “scientists might have to rethink the impact on global climate of extreme blazes.” 

Lax fire laws in Russia permit fire authorities to allow wildfires to burn uncontained where the cost of containment outweighs potential damages. Even though the region is sparsely populated, the wildfires threaten many rural communities in the Sakha Republic. According to Patrick Reevell of ABC News, firefighters working to protect these villages from the blaze “blamed the scale of the fires on authorities’ failure to extinguish the blazes early on, a consequence they said in part of cuts to the federal forestry fire service.” 

A program launching in Russia aimed at attracting private investment into Russian forestry, would allow companies to earn carbon credits if the CO₂ absorption of their plots improves. Although reliance on carbon sinks has been criticised for permitting countries to avoid the necessary emission reductions needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, investment into proper forest management could minimise the impact of wildfires on local communities in the region. 

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Climate Change Strengthens Hurricanes and Threatens Environmental Justice

Double exposure of Hurricane Ida approaching New Orleans on August 29, 2021.

27 September 2021 – by Ben St. Laurent

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN body responsible for assessing the scientific basis for climate change, recently published its 6th Assessment Report (AR6) which strengthened the scientific certainty that human-induced climate change is amplifying the severity of extreme weather events across the globe. According to Sarah Gibbens’ article in National Geographic on the effect of climate change on hurricanes, scientists will spend months modeling Ida’s path under low-emission scenarios to ascertain the impacts of climate change on the storm’s intensity. However, Gibbens notes that on a broader scale scientists have already attributed the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones to warmer ocean temperatures, their increased capacity of precipitation to the increased atmospheric temperature, and their slower crawl over land to weakening of wind currents due to uneven warming. 

The results from a recent study published in Nature cautiously suggests that climate change is also contributing to an increase in the intensification rate of hurricanes, which is associated with “the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses,” but indicated the need for further research. Hurricane Ida’s approach to Louisiana’s coastline is evidence of this pattern — the storm intensified at a rate four times faster than required to be considered ‘rapidly intensifying’.  Ida’s rapid intensification was a major factor in Louisiana’s response to Hurricane Ida which gave emergency systems less time to prepare and residents fewer days to evacuate.

In the wake of Hurricane Ida, the internationally recognized meteorologist Marshall Shepherd questions whether public officials need a “new evacuation playbook for an era of rapidly-intensifying hurricanes.” New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell encouraged voluntary evacuations but stated that because Ida intensified more rapidly than city officials were prepared for, it prevented them from issuing a mandatory evacuation. Earlier evacuation could have made a difference for the growing number of lives lost to Hurricane Ida in Louisiana. As of September 9th, 26 Louisiana residents have been killed by Hurricane Ida, with 43 more deaths recorded as Ida swept across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the country.

Outside of Louisiana, the majority of fatalities were clustered in New York and New Jersey where record-setting rainfall flooded streets, subway stations, and homes. Flooding in New York City has become an environmental justice issue that disproportionately affects impoverished and immigrant communities who are more likely to live in single-exit underground units which don’t meet safety requirements. As flash floods ripped through New York City, water flowed into basement dwellings, killing 11 residents who became trapped in their homes. The impact of flooding on immigrant communities in Queens is part of a larger trend of double displacement observed among communities displaced by various factors who are subsequently at greater risk of displacement from environmental factors. Jennifer Mooklal, a resident of Queens whose neighbors the Ramskriets drowned in their basement apartment as Ida passed over, told the New York Times that residents have “been dealing with this problem for years” but despite their pleas to the city, she feels that “no one is listening….” 

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Historic Levels of Rainfall Across Europe Lead to Deadly Floods

traffic light sign underwater

16 September 2021 – by Evelyn Workman

In mid-July devastating floods hit several European countries, leading to widespread destruction. Record rainfall in many regions, in particular across Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, caused rivers to burst their banks. There have been at least 229 fatalities as a result of the floods. 

Germany was hit with the most devastating consequences of the flooding. With 184 deaths reported, the floods are the most deadly natural disaster in Germany since the North Sea flood of 1962. The brunt of the destruction was witnessed in the district of Ahrweiler, Rhineland-Palatinate, where heavy rainfall caused the river Ahr to overflow, destroying many buildings and causing at least 110 deaths. It was reported by the German Weather Service that some areas witnessed the heaviest rainfall in a century.

In the Netherlands, the river Maas in the region of Limburg reached its highest summertime level in over 100 years. The town of Valkenburg aan de Geul was one of the worst hit in the region, with damages assessed to be €400 million, and 700 homes rendered uninhabitable. 

Meanwhile, in Belgium, all 200,000 residents of the eastern city of Liège were urged to evacuate on 15th July due to concerns that the river Meuse would burst its banks. Rainfall was most intense in the east of the country, with records hitting almost 3 times the average rainfall for the month of July. 

While many factors contributed to the floods, scientists say that a warming climate makes extreme rainfall more likely. In the aftermath of the flooding, German chancellor Angela Merkel has called for Germany to step up its fight against climate change. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo declared 20 July a national day of mourning for the lives lost. He said that this disaster “could be the most catastrophic flooding our country has ever seen.”

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) spokesperson, Clare Nullis, has stated that under future climate change scenarios we will continue to witness more extreme weather events such as intense rainfall. Nullis has urged more climate action from all countries, saying: “We need to step up climate action, we need to step up the level of ambition”.

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Thousands Forced to Flee as Wildfires Ravage Turkey and Greece

white smoke coming from a gray clouds

4 September 2021 – by Atoosa Gitiforoz

In recent months, out of control wildfires have brought large-scale blazes across Greece and Turkey, forcing thousands to flee.

According to the European Forest Fire Information system, around 160,000 hectares of forest have burned in Turkey this year, four times the average between 2008-2020. Greece has seen temperatures soar to 45 degrees Celsius – the hottest heat wave in decades. Dozens of villages across both countries have been evacuated, as blazes continue to destroy people’s homes.

Three people have been arrested in suspicion of starting fires, however, officials have been pointing to the wider climate crisis as the underlying catalyst; fires continue to be fed by strong winds and unusually high temperatures.

A report draft recently released by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as part of the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, presents some significant findings. The report projects a more accurate Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) estimate: from the previous estimate of 1.5C and 4.5C in 2014, to 2.5C and 4C in 2021, with the best estimate at 3 degrees Celsius. 

The report, written by over 230 leading scientists across the globe, points to areas vulnerable to water stress and wildfires as at high risk of worsening drought. The report makes it clear that in order to avert these outcomes, rapid reductions in CO2 and greenhouse emissions are necessary, or both water shortages and wildfire trends will continue to worsen.

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Scientists Confirm That Amazon is Now Emitting More CO2 Than It is Absorbing

aerial view of green trees and river during daytime

24 August 2021 – by Evelyn Workman

A recent study has revealed that significant parts of the Amazon rainforest are now emitting more carbon dioxide than it absorbs. Up until recently, the Amazon has been one of the most important sinks of CO2, assisting in the absorption of the emissions causing climate change, however, this new research demonstrates that the Amazon is actually starting to help accelerate climate change.

The causes of this shift from carbon sink to carbon source are investigated in the study, published in Nature in July. It found that most of the emissions are caused by fires, many of which are deliberately started to clear land for beef and soy production. In addition to the fires, hotter temperatures and droughts also contribute to the forest becoming a CO2 source.

The researchers measured CO2 above the rainforest canopy at four different locations during the period from 2010 to 2018. At these locations 600 vertical profiles of CO2 were taken up to 4,500 m above the canopy. This allowed the researchers to investigate how the whole Amazon is changing. While previous studies have established that the Amazon’s CO2 uptake has been declining based on ground based measurements, this study is the first to use atmospheric measurements across a vast geographical area.

Lead author and researcher at Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Luciana Gatti, says the research highlights some bad news, that “forest burning produces around three times more CO2 than the forest absorbs.” 

Additionally, she emphasised that, “the places where deforestation is 30% or more show carbon emissions 10 times higher than where deforestation is lower than 20%.”

These insights are made even more worrying by the fact that deforestation rates have been higher under Brazil’s current president, Jair Bolsonaro, than under any past administration. And deforestation is showing no sign of halting, with rates hitting a 12 year high in 2020.

“Imagine if we could prohibit fires in the Amazon – it could be a carbon sink,” said Gatti. “But we are doing the opposite – we are accelerating climate change.”

“The worst part is we don’t use science to make decisions,” she said. “People think that converting more land to agriculture will mean more productivity, but in fact we lose productivity because of the negative impact on rain.”

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Floods in Bangladesh and Beyond

green trees on body of water during daytime

20 August 2021 – by Atoosa Gitiforoz

A new study published by Nature reveals a stark increase in the number of people exposed to flooding. For example, between 2000 and 2015, the number of people exposed to flood-affected areas in Bangladesh increased by 14.3 million. 

The study, using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2000-2018 produced 913 flood maps, demonstrating a 20-24% increase in flood exposure in the first 15 years of the 21st century – almost 10 times higher than previous estimates from 1970-2010. Whilst previous studies focused on Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, this study identifies 57 countries where flood exposure is expected to grow. 

It is worth noting that one of the reasons this study has in fact produced such high estimates is due to the inclusion of dam breaks, pluvial events and snowmelts – factors often not included in other global models. However, the study does likely underestimate flood exposure trends in rapidly urbanizing areas, says the author; this is due to uncertainties in satellites and population growth modelling. 

The study concludes by pointing to ways flood-exposed population estimates could be improved in the future i.e. including more events over longer periods of time or at higher resolution, increasing the number of modelled events such as flash flooding where satellite temporal coverage is inadequate, comparing observation and modelling trends and refining future global population spatial estimates. 

Enhancing both estimation and vulnerability analyses can ultimately boost flood adaptation efforts and drive investment into mitigation efforts.

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Climate Crisis to Blame for Severe Madagascar Drought

brown grass field with green tree under blue sky during daytime

17 August 2021 – by Evelyn Workman

The worst drought in over four decades has hit southern Madagascar, leaving thousands of families on the brink of starvation, the UN food agency has warned. It reported that more than 1.14 million people are food insecure as a result of the severe droughts in the region.

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes in search of food, and those who remained have been sustaining themselves on raw cactus fruits, wild leaves and locusts for several months. The district of Ambovombe is one of the worst affected areas, where global acute malnutrition rates have reached 27 percent, leaving many facing a life-threatening situation. In addition, malnutrition levels in children under five in Madagascar have almost doubled over the last four months, to a frightening 16.5 per cent. It is estimated that 14,000 people are already in catastrophic conditions, and this is expected to double to 28,000 by October. Few people have been able to access the area due to the remote location and weak road infrastructure, resulting in the delivery of aid being delayed.

World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley, who visited the region, has said, “This is not because of war or conflict, this is because of climate change”.

Beasley has urged people to not turn their backs on the people of Madagascar, and, “to stand up, act and keep supporting the Malagasy government to hold back the tide of climate change and save lives.”

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Miami Condo Collapse – Did Climate Change Play a Role?

palm trees near buildings

16 August 2021 – by Evelyn Workman

Champlain Towers South, a 12-story beachfront condo in the Miami suburb of Surfside, Florida, partially collapsed on the 24th June. The death toll from the disaster sits at 79, as of 10th July, while a further 61 remain unaccounted for. Investigations are still being carried out to determine the precise cause of the collapse, however, questions have been raised over the impact the climate crisis and rising sea levels had on destabilising the building, and prompts further discussions on how climate change will impact other buildings in south Florida.

A 2018 engineering report on the structure found “abundant cracking and spalling in various degrees” in concrete columns, and that deteriorating waterproofing could cause “exponential damage” via the expansion of these cracks. 

“Cracks in the concrete allows more sea water to get in, which causes further reactions and the spreading of cracks. If you don’t take care of it, that can cause a structure failure”, said Director of the University of Florida’s International Center for Adaptation Planning and Design, Zhong-Ren Peng.

While experts say that the exact role of rising seas in the collapse is still unclear, buildings will become unstable due to the advancements of salt water which will weaken the foundations. Higher sea level increases the amount of saltwater the foundations of buildings are exposed to, and with most of south Florida already only a few feet above sea level, other buildings in the area could be subjected to a similar fate 

Harold Wanless, a geologist at the University of Miami, says the sea level in south Florida could increase by a foot each decade in the second half of this century, depending on the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. 

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UK Parliament Considers Joining Independent Expert Panel in Recommending ‘Ecocide’ as New Crime for International Criminal Court

gray and brown train railway near green green moutain

11 August 2021 – by Ben St. Laurent

In a renewed effort to incorporate environmental protection into existing bodies of international criminal law, an expert panel has developed a legal definition for the term ‘ecocide’ — “unlawful or wanton acts committed with knowledge that there is a substantial likelihood of severe and widespread or long-term damage to the environment being caused by those acts.” The expert panel included independent criminal and environmental lawyers, jurists, authors, and professors from around the world. The Stop Ecocide Foundation, responsible for convening the commission, is working to amend the Rome Statute to include ecocide within the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) jurisdiction.

According to Guardian legal affairs correspondent Haroon Siddique, this present attempt marks the most recent in a long battle to establish a legal framework for ecocide, including an effort to include ecocide in the 1972 Stockholm Declaration, as well as the 1998 Rome Statute which established the ICC. While it currently lacks explicit jurisdiction over environmental cases, in recent years the ICC has interpreted crimes against humanity to include environmental destruction, with implications for member states as well as corporations operating within their borders. If the Rome Statute is amended to include ecocide, it would join the ranks of international crimes including genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and crimes of aggression. Prof Philippe Sands QC, who co-chaired the committee, told The Guardian that the new definition of Ecocide “catches the most egregious acts”, including major oil spills and deforestation, but excludes daily activities that more broadly contribute to climate change.

Already, an amendment to the 2021 UK Environment Bill has been introduced by Green Party peer and former party leader Natalie Bennett, which would adopt the new legal definition of ecocide into UK law. If retained in its current state after the review process, this amendment would also create a path for domestic criminal recourse against those responsible for committing ecocide in the UK. Another amendment to the Environment Bill (page 85) proposed by Baroness Bennett would require that the UK government support an amendment to the 1998 Rome Statute, which would begin the process of the ICC expanding its jurisdiction to include ecocide. 

Article 121 of the Rome Statute maintains that any of the Court’s 123 state parties may propose an amendment to the treaty, and the ICC would require the support of at least a two-thirds majority of member states to adopt the amendment. If adopted, the amendment would enter into force for all ratifying parties one year after ratification, allowing the court to “exercise its jurisdiction regarding a crime covered by the amendment when committed by that State Party’s nationals or on its territory.” 

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Heatwave Linked to Hundreds of Deaths in U.S. Pacific Northwest and Canada

silhouette of mountains during sunset

9 August 2021 – by Evelyn Workman

A devastating heatwave hit the US Pacific Northwest and Canada last week, shattering temperature records in many areas across the region. The heatwave was caused by a persistent area of high pressure, known as a “heat dome”.

In Canada, temperatures rose to nearly 50°C, leading to devastation, including hundreds of deaths, melted power lines and wildfires. Lytton, British Columbia, broke Canada’s hottest temperature record on three consecutive days last week. A wildfire consequently destroyed the settlement on Wednesday, the heatwave leaving perfect conditions for its rapid spread. The community were evacuated, however, at least two people are believed to have died in the wildfire. Similarly, Seattle and Portland recorded three consecutive days of record breaking temperatures, peaking at 42.2°C and 46.1°C, respectively, on Monday 28th June.

A week after the worst consequences of the heatwave were witnessed, health officials are only now being able to take stock of the disastrous effects the heatwave has had on the communities. The heat was blamed for 95 deaths in Oregon, while 13 deaths were reported to be heat related in Seattle, Washington. Nearly 500 people may have been killed in Canada as a result of the record breaking temperatures. British Columbia’s chief coroner said that 719 “sudden and unexpected deaths” had been reported over the past week, which is triple the number expected in a typical year.

In addition, hospitals across the region were left struggling with the increased demand of people needing medical attention, due to heat-related illnesses in combination with water injuries and increased violence levels. Officials in Portland have reported that the area got more emergency department and urgent care visits in a single weekend than it would usually see in an entire summer. 

Climate scientists have warned that climate change will make these extreme heat waves more common everywhere, and that all societies need to prepare for extreme weather events. One of the world’s leading climate scientists, Michael E Mann, said, “Climate models are actually underestimating the impact that climate change is having on events like the unprecedented heatwave we are witnessing out west right now.” U.S. president Joe Biden and Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau have joined scientists in blaming the climate crisis for the heatwave.

While the worst of this heat dome has hit, high temperatures are still expected to continue over the next week, increasing the risk of more deaths, illnesses, and forest fires.