Category: Asia

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For Persons With Disabilities, Migration and Evacuation Following Calamity Have Seldom Been Possible 

blue and white exit signage mounted on brown brick wall

14 June 2022 – by Willy Phillips

Globally, Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) are two to four times more likely to experience injury or death during natural disasters and war than non-disabled individuals. This silent reality has long accompanied the aftermath of calamity. Places like Ukraine, struck by war, and the Philippines, under the barrage of natural disasters, share the often overlooked necessity of aiding PWDs amidst the chaos.

In response to disasters, many individuals must migrate from their homes. For PWDs, however, the options are limited. Without specialized equipment or proper training, those aiding cannot evacuate this group of individuals safely.

In Ukraine, the Russian invasion has left 2.7 million PWDs in dire situations. The UN Committee on the Rights of PWDs has said in the wake of this conflict, disabled individuals have faced the worst of the war. The reports mention that “many people with disabilities, including children, are trapped or abandoned in their homes, residential care institutions and orphanages, with no access to life-sustaining medications, oxygen supplies, food, water, sanitation, support for daily living and other basic facilities.” Most of the 4.8 million who have fled the country are reportedly able-bodied.

In the Philippines, natural disasters like super typhoon Rai in December 2021 impacted nearly 12 million individuals. As of April 2022, 12,000 individuals are still displaced, and roughly half are housed in temporary evacuation centers. While the damage was immense and the recovery has been grueling, this storm has had a better ending for PWDs. A humanitarian organization called Community and Family Services International (CFSI) has set out to change the statistics for PWDs, especially children. Following the storm, CFSI provided 1,800 families with documented assistance. Each of these families had at least one elderly or disabled household member.

While much work is still required, CFSI sets the example for ensuring that these memebers of our society are accounted for. A paradigm shift toward equality emerges using a UN-backed framework called ‘disability inclusive disaster risk reduction’, or DiDRR. An essential component in the fight for the human rights of all persons, this guideline aims to change the attitudes of states and individuals towards a future of more comprehensive disaster readiness.

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Climate Change Creates Optimal Grounds for Human Trafficking

people riding boat on body of water during daytime

27 May 2022- by Willy Phillips

At the age of 12, Anjali thought she had been given a chance to advance her passion for dance. Her dance teacher approached her in West Bengal after cyclone Aila hit in 2009 with the opportunity to practice in Kolkata. Instead, she was whisked away to Delhi, where, for three consecutive months, she was tortured and raped. Anjali’s story is powerful, but it is not unique. 

Since recording began, the number of global climate migrants has been steadily rising. According to the World Migration Report, over 30 million people were displaced due to climate events in 2020 alone. These events are most commonly severe storms, flooding, drought, and extreme temperatures, which cause individuals, families, and even entire communities to relocate. This rise in displacements juxtaposes the 60% decline in voluntary international travel due to Covid restrictions throughout the year. 

The connection between disasters and migration feels obvious. If an area becomes uninhabitable, people must go somewhere. However, an issue that’s much less obvious and lurks in the unchecked aftermath of a disaster is human trafficking. Trafficking runs rampant in post-disaster states. Social and systemic factors contribute to this sharp increase as social institutions collapse. Specifically, a lack of accountability from law enforcement and difficulty securing aid or resources creates a vacuum quickly filled by crime syndicates. Offering stable employment or promises of resources like food and water, these groups prey on the vulnerable and exploit necessity.

In post-disaster situations and times of high migration, rates of trafficking rise sharply by 30%. Moreover, as climate change exacerbates the impact of natural disasters, more individuals, mainly women and children, will fall victim to the chaos.

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Turkey at High Risk of Water Scarcity

turkey flag hanging on bridge

7 January 2022 – by Deniz Saygi

As a water-stressed country, Turkey has faced severe droughts since the 1980s on account of the combination of overpopulation, unplanned urbanization, industrialisation, climate change and global warming. The water in the dams supplying the major cities of Turkey has been reduced since there is no rainfall.

Istanbul, a prominent centre of trade and commerce of Turkey, is experiencing critically low levels of water. The megacity is at the risk of running out of water in the next few months, according to the report by the UCTEA Chamber Of Chemical Engineers. Consequently, Turkey’s most populous city is experiencing the lowest level of water in 15 years, and this situation raised fears of a persistent drought.

Not only Istanbul, but also Turkey’s major cities are facing water scarcity too: For example, Izmir and Bursa are struggling with dams that are at the risk of scarcity due to the poor rainfall. Moreover, farmers – especially from the Konya plain and Edirne province – are warning of increasing crop failures and food shortages because of the prolonged lack of rainfall by reason of climate change. Ankara, the capital city of Turkey, also has been going through the most severe period of drought in recent years. Citizens of Ankara has been warned about the lack of rainfall could cause a significant water shortage in the near future. 

According to the report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 60 per cent of Turkey’s land area is prone to desertification. The report also underlines the Mediterranean Basin as one of the world’s climate hotspots that occurred due to climate change and global warming. Under these circumstances, the Mediterranean Coast of Turkey will most likely become progressively drier and drastically warmer if necessary measurements are not taken. 

P.S. I would like to thank Mr. Mert Kocal for his contributions to this article.

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Wildfires Burn Across Siberia as Russia Launches Marketplace for Forestry Investors to Earn Carbon Credits

silhouette of trees during sunset

6 October 2021 – by Ben St. Laurent

Wildfires that began earlier than usual within Russia’s Sakha Republic, typically known for its record cold temperatures and permafrost, are responsible for unprecedented levels of carbon emissions. According to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), the fires worsened through June and July, and continue to burn across northeastern Siberia later in the season than usual. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) reported that data from CAMS suggests wildfires in the Sakha Republic have released approximately 800 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent by mid August. 

These fires have also been recognised for their indirect impacts on the Earth’s climate by reducing the capability of Russia’s boreal forest to act as a major carbon sink for Russia and the potential for their smoke to settle on arctic sea ice and accelerate its melting process. Considering recent extreme wildfires across the globe, David Bowman, a fire ecologist at the University of Tasmania, expects that “scientists might have to rethink the impact on global climate of extreme blazes.” 

Lax fire laws in Russia permit fire authorities to allow wildfires to burn uncontained where the cost of containment outweighs potential damages. Even though the region is sparsely populated, the wildfires threaten many rural communities in the Sakha Republic. According to Patrick Reevell of ABC News, firefighters working to protect these villages from the blaze “blamed the scale of the fires on authorities’ failure to extinguish the blazes early on, a consequence they said in part of cuts to the federal forestry fire service.” 

A program launching in Russia aimed at attracting private investment into Russian forestry, would allow companies to earn carbon credits if the CO₂ absorption of their plots improves. Although reliance on carbon sinks has been criticised for permitting countries to avoid the necessary emission reductions needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, investment into proper forest management could minimise the impact of wildfires on local communities in the region. 

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Floods in Bangladesh and Beyond

green trees on body of water during daytime

20 August 2021 – by Atoosa Gitiforoz

A new study published by Nature reveals a stark increase in the number of people exposed to flooding. For example, between 2000 and 2015, the number of people exposed to flood-affected areas in Bangladesh increased by 14.3 million. 

The study, using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2000-2018 produced 913 flood maps, demonstrating a 20-24% increase in flood exposure in the first 15 years of the 21st century – almost 10 times higher than previous estimates from 1970-2010. Whilst previous studies focused on Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, this study identifies 57 countries where flood exposure is expected to grow. 

It is worth noting that one of the reasons this study has in fact produced such high estimates is due to the inclusion of dam breaks, pluvial events and snowmelts – factors often not included in other global models. However, the study does likely underestimate flood exposure trends in rapidly urbanizing areas, says the author; this is due to uncertainties in satellites and population growth modelling. 

The study concludes by pointing to ways flood-exposed population estimates could be improved in the future i.e. including more events over longer periods of time or at higher resolution, increasing the number of modelled events such as flash flooding where satellite temporal coverage is inadequate, comparing observation and modelling trends and refining future global population spatial estimates. 

Enhancing both estimation and vulnerability analyses can ultimately boost flood adaptation efforts and drive investment into mitigation efforts.

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Droughts to Dry up Afghanistan Once Again

brown and white mountains during daytime

5 July 2021 – by Atoosa Gitiforoz

Warnings of drought come amid escalating conflict ahead of the withdrawal of US troops and NATO forces. Coronavirus has also worsened an already poor health system where over a third of the population experiences food insecurity, rising prices and unemployment. 

In 2018, a drought caused 250,000 people to flee their homes. The slow aid response meant it was only until the government declared drought, action was taken. West Afghanistan saw families flee to areas outside Herat City, where thousands still remain displaced. This coming drought is expected to bring below-average wheat harvest and adverse impacts on livestock.

Aid groups say that they are better prepared for this drought – humanitarian groups have a plan that includes food and cash aid, support for livestock and water wells. However, ‘according to international forecast models, average precipitation and above-average temperature conditions are expected from June to August 2021.’  Donor funds are also stretched across the globe. Only 12% of the funding required for the 2021 Humanitarian Response Plan has been received.

Afghanistan will need significant humanitarian support for the foreseeable future across many areas. Heat waves and more droughts are expected in Afghanistan as temperatures rise. Climate change is likely to push the aid sector to act more pre-emptively.

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Technology, Policy and Social Efforts Key For the Future of Climate Change Mitigation in India

28 May 2021 – by Atoosa Gitiforoz

India, one of the world’s fastest growing economies, has the third highest Greenhouse Gas Emission (GHG) emissions in the world behind the United States and China. Earlier this year, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) reported that the air temperature had risen by 0.7 degrees Celsius 1901 – 2018, and the sea level 1 degrees Celsius between 1951-2015.

India’s rising air and sea temperatures and rapid urbanisation have had damaging domestic climate effects primarily impacting the poor, marginalised, indigenous and women. Studies show that up to 15% of maize crop areas are affected by flash droughts every year. Agricultural policies also exacerbate climate change; a reliance on thermal power (68% of GHG emissions) brings low quality, high yields. Crops such as rice and wheat in dry conditions worsen monsoon variations due to their high water consumption. Approximately 65% of India’s population live in rural areas, many of whom rely on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fishing and livestock.

At the Paris Climate Summit [COP21], India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged to reduce emission intensity by 33-35%, increase its share of non-fossil based fuel to 40% by 2030 and boost forest cover to absorb 2.5-3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030.  Climate Action Tracker, a joint initiative by two climate research organizations based in Germany, state that India is the only major country whose climate mitigation efforts are in line with the goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

During the pandemic, India’s proportion of renewable energy rose from 17 per cent to 24 per cent while coal-fired power declined from 76 per cent to 66 per cent. Renewable energy in India has the potential to increase employment, improve air quality, water and land use and biodiversity. Scientific and financial incentives by the Indian government would help shift farmer reliance away from crops that worsen arid land.

Climate change resilience, alongside mitigation efforts, is key for countries where climate disasters are currently common. Carbon sequestration through the protection and nourishment of forests and urban green spaces improve drought, flash flood, landslide and coastal infrastructure resilience. It also lowers ambient temperatures. Access to water can be improved through the implementation of solar pumps, water sprinklers, drip irrigation, mulching and bed plantation – all of which are low cost relative to irrigation projects. Empowering local communities to take part in water harvesting and conservation ensures that efforts suit local ecologies too.

Whilst India is committing to climate change mitigation efforts for 2030, longer-term goals and on-going changes to technology, policy and social efforts must be made. A low carbon growth route with clear domestic climate policies and incentives is necessary if India is to hit net-zero targets.

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Climate Displacement in Numbers Across Asia

24 May 2021 – by Hazal Yilmaz

In Dhaka, one of the most rainy cities of Bangladesh, hefty rainfall brings about flooding, water pollution and various diseases for a population of up to four million. Similar conditions are experienced by climate migrants that are forced to move due to the subpar conditions in the Ganges Delta.

According to the data, 10 million people, mostly living in Asia and the Pacific, were displaced in eight months due to natural disasters, especially those induced by climate change. Even once displaced, they still remain vulnerable to new threats.

According to the report published in 2018, erosions in Bangladesh and floods affecting Dhaka in the last 50 years have dragged thousands of people into poverty, forcing them to look elsewhere for resources. In the South Pacific, a storm caused by unusually hot waters in April 2020, posed similar challenges. In Afghanistan, 370,000 people had no choice but to leave their homes due to an extreme drought in 2018 and only the year following, 42,000 people were once again forced to migrate, but this time due to floods. The number of displaced persons in the Asia-Pacific Region, who make up 80% of the 20 million people displaced due to climate disasters, will very likely reach millions, and that even even if global warming is kept constant at 2 °C.

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Impact of Sea-level Rise on Migration in Bangladesh

10 May 2021 – by Hazal Yilmaz

A new study suggests that movement, especially in low-lying coastal areas, induced by sea-levels rising may trigger a migration wave that will affect around 1.3 million Bangladeshi by 2050.

The mathematical model in the study considers the sequential impact of migration, with respect to the interaction between migrants and residents, by evaluating economic factors alongside human behaviour. The predictions revealed by the model are that primarily the southern regions of the country will be affected and as a result 64 different districts may be subject to forced displacement. According to the American Geophysical Union, there is even a possibility that migrants may also displace existing residents.

The predictions for the capital city of Dhaka in particular stipulate that the population of the city will first increase, before it will be met with a decline due to overcrowding. Furthermore, foreseeing the potential paths of migration through the model may also help in the prevention of conflicts and resource shortages through apt preparations.

The authors of the study submit that using predictive models should guide all future decisions on climate migration, whether with relation to sea level rise, or other natural disasters such as earthquakes, droughts and forest fires.

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Receding Glaciers Threaten Uttarakhand Residents’ Electricity and Homes

8 April 2021 – by Benjamin St. Laurent

Residents of the Indian state of Uttarakhand, which sits a few hundred miles north of New Delhi and is bordered to its north by the Himalayas, have come face to face with the deadly impacts of climate change. In early February, the effects of melting glaciers in the Himalayas caused a flash flood of debris-filled water to crash through the Tapovan Vishnugad Hydropower Plant. Reports have estimated the death toll may be as high as 200, as search and rescue efforts were stymied by the harsh terrain around the Dhauliganga River. The flash flood was likely triggered by a massive section of glacial ice breaking free and causing a surge of water to rush downriver. Evidence shows that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of these disasters by exacerbating extreme rainfall in the region as well as raising the average temperature of the glacial ice.

In a country grappling with the task of providing electricity for its growing population, the increased risk of severe flooding and avalanches may put India’s goal of expanding electricity access and reducing power outages at risk. According to The Associated Press, experts tasked with studying the impact of receding Himalayan glaciers on dams in the area have long recommended that hydroelectric projects “take into account the ecological fragility of the mountains and the unpredictable risks posed by climate change”, and other sources of renewable energy may pose less harm to the local community. But the human impact that these disasters have on residents of Uttarakhand is too often overlooked.

The increased risk of severe flooding and avalanches has already killed thousands of Uttarakhand residents and displaced many others. NPR reported that a number of villages immediately began evacuating residents and nearby riverside areas were put on high alert.  According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), climate change is increasing the frequency of migration in Uttarakhand as well as the risk associated with relocation. To better accommodate the needs of migrants, PIK recommends that policymakers establish safe routes of migration and support the development of alternative livelihood options for the large population of agricultural workers who may be forced to leave their land behind.

Sources

Prakash Kashwan, N. (2021). Hydropower projects are wreaking havoc in the Himalayas. Retrieved 4 April 2021, from https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/3/19/hydropower-projects-are-wrecking-havoc-in-the-himalayas

BBC. (2021). Uttarakhand dam disaster: Race to rescue 150 people missing in India. Retrieved 5 April 2021, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-55975743

Vaidya RA, Shrestha MS, Nasab N, Gurung DR, Kozo N, Pradhan NS, Wasson RJ, Shrestha AB, Gurung CG, Bajracharya A, Dasgupta P, Shrestha MS, (2019) Chapter 11: Disaster Risk Reduction and Building Resilience in the Hindu Kush Himalaya In: Wester P, Mishra A, Mukherji A, Shrestha AB (eds) The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment. Springer Nature, Cham, p 402. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_15

Ghosal, A. (2021). Himalayan glacier disaster highlights climate change risks. Retrieved 4 April 2021, from https://apnews.com/article/climate-climate-change-courts-avalanches-india-7be7a76eea4d497b22609ff3d5194e69

Frayer, L. (2021). Scores Are Feared Dead In India After Himalayan Glacier Breaks Away. Retrieved 5 April 2021, from https://www.npr.org/2021/02/07/965046888/scores-are-feared-dead-in-india-after-himalayan-glacier-breaks-away
Upadhyay, H., Vinke, K., Bhardwaj, S., Becker, M., Irfan, M., George, N.B., Biella, R., Arumugam, P., Murki, S.K., Paoletti, E. (2021): Locked Houses, Fallow Lands: Climate Change and Migration in Uttarakhand, India. Report, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam and The Energy and Resources Institute (Teri), New Delhi. Retrieved 4 April 2021, from
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/locked-houses-fallow-lands-climate-change-and-migration-in-the-himalayan-state-of-uttarakhand-india