10 May 2021 – by Hazal Yilmaz
A new study suggests that movement, especially in low-lying coastal areas, induced by sea-levels rising may trigger a migration wave that will affect around 1.3 million Bangladeshi by 2050.
The mathematical model in the study considers the sequential impact of migration, with respect to the interaction between migrants and residents, by evaluating economic factors alongside human behaviour. The predictions revealed by the model are that primarily the southern regions of the country will be affected and as a result 64 different districts may be subject to forced displacement. According to the American Geophysical Union, there is even a possibility that migrants may also displace existing residents.
The predictions for the capital city of Dhaka in particular stipulate that the population of the city will first increase, before it will be met with a decline due to overcrowding. Furthermore, foreseeing the potential paths of migration through the model may also help in the prevention of conflicts and resource shortages through apt preparations.
The authors of the study submit that using predictive models should guide all future decisions on climate migration, whether with relation to sea level rise, or other natural disasters such as earthquakes, droughts and forest fires.
