30 March 2021 – by Evelyn Workman
Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, will become increasingly common in the future, as our climate continues to warm. More and more scientific research is being carried in this field, due to the potential devastating consequences to humans as a result of more frequent and more severe heatwaves. One recently published paper within this field has found that, unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly curbed, life-threatening and extreme heatwaves will be observed in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and could be a significant driver for mass migration to cooler northern regions in the future.
The study, “Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa” published in the journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, used a multi-model ensemble of climate projections, and then predicted future heatwaves and characterised them with the Heat Wave Magnitude Index. The results indicate that, under a business-as-usual pathway (greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at present day rates) unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves will develop in MENA in the second half of this century. The study predicts the events will involve temperatures exceeding 56 °C and will last for several weeks at a time, leading to life-threatening conditions for humans. In addition, by the end of the century, about half of the MENA population could be exposed to these ultra-extreme heatwaves on an annual basis. This potential intensification of heatwaves in MENA could lead to increased migration from the region to cooler, more northern places.
The authors suggest that immediate and drastic action on climate change, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, are necessary to prevent such extreme heatwave events from occurring. In addition, they also suggest that cities in the area will have to develop adaptation solutions to cope with the greater prevalence and severity of heatwaves in the area.Â
Sources
George Zittis, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Mansour Almazroui, Edoardo Bucchignani, Fatima Driouech, Khalid El Rhaz, Levent Kurnaz, Grigory Nikulin, Athanasios Ntoumos, Tugba Ozturk, Yiannis Proestos, Georgiy Stenchikov, Rashyd Zaaboul, Jos Lelieveld. Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2021; 4 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7
