Whither Jakarta? An Outlook on the World’s Fastest Sinking City

8 December 2021 – by Harry David

With more than 10 million inhabitants, Jakarta has become one of the largest metropolitan cities in the world. While the city has witnessed rapid economic development, many social and environmental issues are yet to be resolved – most critically, the fact that Jakarta is sinking at the rate of 10 centimeters per year. This ticking time bomb is expected to displace the majority of Jakarta’s population by 2050.

Understanding Jakarta’s existential threat is not an easy task. The issue spans from inadequate urban planning to lack of governmental preventive actions, in addition to massive groundwater loss. The latter is particularly problematic for a local population that relies on groundwater, since without it, Jakarta will be unable to provide access to clean water for its inhabitants.

The extraction of groundwater in Jakarta on a massive scale over the past six decades is one of the major reasons for its sinking. Water exists between sediment layers in the ground underneath Jakarta, and when this is removed in excessive, unregulated amounts, the sediment layers can collapse and compress together, reducing the elevation of affected areas on a dramatic scale. The heavily impacted coastal area of North Jakarta has already sunk 2.5 meters over the past decade and many fishing neighbourhoods have been destroyed. 

Due to its seasonal heavy rain climate and limited open space for water absorption, Jakarta has faced many annual floods; the most detrimental flooding in 2020 alone left millions affected, thousands displaced and at least 26 dead. Research shows that global warming is also a factor behind instances of severe flooding across Greater Jakarta, with increasing rainfall and extreme monsoon storms making the current situation worse. A report by Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency indicates that Jakarta’s rainfall has reached 335 millimetres per day – enough to classify as extreme rain. Furthermore, some areas in Jakarta that are already below sea level are on the verge of sinking entirely due to unstoppable global sea level rise.

While many anticipate that Jakarta only has until 2050 before the issue is irreversible, there are concerns that the tipping point could occur even sooner. As the hub of Indonesia’s economic activities, Jakarta offers many job opportunities for Indonesians, hence the city still experiences an influx of people. With the population of Jakarta increasing annually, new high-rise apartments and housing complexes in Greater Jakarta are rapidly being built, further limiting open spaces and groundwater usage, and accelerating Jakarta’s sinking rate.

The government is expected to come up with feasible solutions on this issue for Jakarta, and both the local and national governments are being pressured by local residents and, to a lesser extent, NGO bodies, to address the issue. However, many perceive the government has not done enough to do so. Of all proposed solutions, one of the most controversial plans that the Indonesian government intends to carry out is to move the State’s capital. The government argued that as a city, Jakarta is burdened with overpopulation and environmental crisis, and currently intends to implement this transition by moving the State’s capital to the island of Borneo. Political leaders expect that moving the capital will decentralize power out of Java Island, helping to develop the economy of other islands. This move is also expected to revitalise the capital’s living conditions as it eases Jakarta’s over-population problems.

Whilst this initially sounds promising, many activists and research institutes think differently. Moving the capital to Borneo Island might be damaging for Indonesia’s rainforest in building the city. In addition, an issue of indigenous rights of tribal communities in Borneo Island also emerges in the discussion. Thousands of indigenous people may be displaced from their tribal lands as large areas of the forest are cleared to build the new capital. Moving the capital to another island will also not necessarily resolve Jakarta’s problem of land sinkage, because many people might still be reluctant to move, meaning that Jakarta will remain the home of economic and industrial activities, all of which will continue to face the same threats.

Apart from this, the government is also building a sea wall across Jakarta’s coastline to prevent sea level rise’s impacts on Jakarta. It may minimize the effects of sea abrasion on Jakarta, but given that the main cause of Jakarta’s sinking is the lack of government-supplied drinking water, this will leave a key issue unsolved. Less than 60% of Jakarta inhabitants are covered by piped water infrastructure, and even this is centralized in wealthy areas.This means that for as long as the population remains reliant on groundwater and the government remains unable to find an alternative way to supply its citizens with clean water, then Jakarta’s sinking rate will be nowhere near declining.

Jakarta may well be on its way to becoming uninhabitable in the near future unless solutions are found without any further delay. While the responsibility rests mainly on the government, it is also imperative for Jakarta’s inhabitants to not further exacerbate the problems. As a collective, Jakarta’s residents can slow the rate of damage by adopting a more environmentally friendly lifestyle, for example by using public transportation more frequently, effectively managing their waste, and consuming water more efficiently. By increasing their environmental awareness, Jakarta’s residents can help to alleaviate the negative impacts of climate change on Jakarta’s sinking, meaning that an integrated educational and political approach will be key. Whether Jakarta’s collapse as a city will happen depends on the ability of all  societal actors to cooperate together in preventing this occurrence.

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