Author: Cosmo Sanderson

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“A Threat-Multiplier”: EU Warns of Climate Crisis-Fuelled Conflict and Migration 

11 June 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

The European Commission has warned its member states to brace for the “spill-over effects” of the climate crisis, setting out a new raft of proposals for dealing with the increased conflict and migration it will cause. 

Rising sea levels, rising temperatures and extreme weather events all “threaten the health and well-being of humanity,” said the Commission in its joint communication last month with the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. 

The Commission and Borrell set out around 30 actions they believe should be taken to prepare member states for the fallout of the climate crisis. These include setting up a data and analysis hub on climate and environment security and launching training platforms at a national and EU level. 

The proposals will strengthen climate-informed planning, they argue, as well as enhancing the climate adaptation and mitigation measures of member states’ security and defence forces. 

The Commission and Borrell have now invited the European Parliament and the European Council to support the “new outlook on the climate and security nexus.”

The paper, published in June, notes that of the 20 countries that are the “most vulnerable and least prepared” for climate change, 12 were in conflict in 2020.

Instability caused by the climate and lack of resources can be actively used by “armed groups and organised crime networks, corrupt or authoritarian regimes,” says the paper. 

Since 2008, an estimated 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced by weather-related events such as floods and heatwaves every year. These numbers are expected to increase, says the paper, “putting stress” on urban centres where demand for housing, food and jobs may rise – contributing to the “increasing social impacts of climate change.”

Sea-level rise, which UN secretary general António Guterres recently warned could lead to migration on a “biblical” scale, is also labelled a security risk due to the “scale of potential displacement.” 

The Commission and Borrell say it is therefore “critically important to continue investing in both climate adaptation and mitigation and in protecting and restoring the environment.”

However, while much is being done in this regard, they say states should prepare themselves for “increased spill-over effects on the European Union.”

The UN special rapporteur on human rights in the context of global warming recently called out the “shocking” number of migrant deaths that take place in Europe and the Mediterranean. He called on countries to help end this by handing humanitarian visas to those displaced by the climate crisis.  

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Climate Migrants Must Get Visas to Stop “Shocking” Number of Deaths in EU, Says UN Expert

11 July 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

In the wake of the latest catastrophic sinking of a migrant boat in the Mediterranean, a UN expert has called on countries to stop the “shocking” number of migrant deaths in Europe by providing humanitarian visas to those displaced by the climate crisis.  

The international community “must realise its responsibility” to protect people displaced by global warming, says Ian Fry, UN special rapporteur on human rights in the context of climate change.

Fry last month issued a report calling on the UN’s Human Rights Council to submit a resolution to the UN General Assembly, urging it to develop a protocol under a 1951 refugee convention to bolster protections for people affected by the climate crisis. 

Until then, he urged all nations to pass laws providing “humanitarian visas” to people displaced by the climate crisis as an “interim measure.”

“The effects of climate change are becoming more severe, and the number of people displaced across international borders is rapidly increasing,” says Fry, a dual national of Tuvalu and Australia who the UN last year appointed as its first special rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights in the context of climate change.

In 2020 alone, 30.7 million people were displaced due to weather-related events, says Fry in his report. Droughts, such as that currently gripping the Horn of Africa, which has resulted in the displacement of over two million people, were said to be the “main factor.”

People displaced by climate change face multiple human rights violations including of their rights to “food, water, sanitation, housing, health, education and, for some, their right to life,” says Fry. “We must take immediate steps to give legal protection to these people.”

Among the most recent to pay the ultimate price for trying to seek a better life in Europe were around 600 people who are either confirmed or presumed dead after their overcrowded fishing vessel sank off the coast of Greece in June. 

Fry says it is “shocking” to note that, of an estimated 50,000 migrants to have lost their lives or gone missing crossing land and sea borders between 2014 to 2022, “more than half of those deaths occurred on routes to and within Europe, including in the Mediterranean Sea.”

One recent study found that the climate crisis could within decades push billions of people into living in “unprecedented” heat unsuitable for human survival, acting as a massive catalyst for further displacement. UN secretary general António Guterres recently warned that sea level rise alone could lead to migration on a “biblical” scale.

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World Sees Hottest Day on Record Twice in One Week

6 July 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

Earth experienced its warmest average temperature since records began on Tuesday, hot on the heels of the 17C mark being broken for the first time on Monday. 

The new record set on Tuesday saw the average global temperature reach 17.18C (62.9F). That level of heat remained steady on Wednesday. 

The world had only breached the 17C mark for the first time on Monday, when the global average hit 17.01C (62.62F). The previous record was 16.92C (62.46F), set in August 2016. 

That means that the three hottest days globally since instrumental recordings began at the end of the 19th century have all been this week. They are believed to be the hottest for at least 125,000 years, when there was an unusually warm period between two ice ages.

The data, a combination of surface, air balloon and satellite readings, was compiled by the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Scientists at the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute analysed the readings to determine the global average.

The thick black line represents temperatures recorded in 2023 and the orange line temperatures in 2022. The black dotted line shows average temperatures from 1979 to 2000. Annual temperatures from 1979 to 2021 appear in light grey (Source: Climate Change Institute, The University of Maine)

Myles Allen, a professor of geosystem science at Oxford University, told the Washington Post that the record-breaking week was due to a “triple whammy” of factors. 

One of these is human-driven global warming, which has already pushed temperatures to 1.25C (2.25F) above the pre-industrial average.

Another is the return of El Niño, a global weather phenomenon that sees the atmosphere trap more heat than usual. Scientists recently declared that El Niño has returned for the first time in four years. 

These factors have combined with natural variation in the annual temperature cycle, which sees the hottest average global temperatures around the end of July. Scientists therefore predict there will likely be hotter days still in the coming weeks. 

The new records come as various countries and regions have experienced sweltering heat. North Africa has seen temperatures nearing an eye-watering 50C, while China has been suffering heatwave conditions of over 35C. 

A recent Mediterranean heatwave was chalked up to global warming. A heat dome in the southern US has killed at least a dozen people, while the UK saw its hottest June on record. 

A study published in May found that the climate crisis could within decades push billions of people into living in “unprecedented” heat unsuitable for human survival. The heat will also accelerate the melting of ice caps and the resulting rise in sea levels, which United Nations secretary general António Guterres recently warned could lead to migration on a “biblical” scale.

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Fossil Fuel Firms Owe US$23 Trillion in Climate Reparations, Says Study

9 June 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

Fossil fuel producers owe a staggering US$23 trillion in climate reparations, according to a new study, which argues that climate migrants should be among the first to benefit from the “tainted wealth” of the world’s largest polluters. 

Energy giants such as Saudi Aramco and ExxonMobil have for decades been “complicit” in thwarting efforts to avert climate catastrophe, the study argues. Now they have a “moral responsibility” to pay compensation to those most affected by the harm caused.  

The study says that almost a quarter of this monumental debt, US$5.4 trillion, lies at the feet of the top 21 producers, who should together pay US$209 billion a year to wipe their climate slate clean. 

The recently released study was written by Italian social scientist and professor Marco Grasso, who last year published a book on holding the oil industry to account for the climate crisis; and Richard Heede, co-founder of the US-based Climate Accountability Institute. 

The study begins by highlighting the fundamental unfairness of global warming and all of the flooding, fires and famine that come with it. An estimated 92% of climate emissions come from the Global North, the study says. And the richest 1% of humanity has caused 15% of all emissions, more than double the 7% caused by the poorest half combined. 

Oil, gas and coal producers are meanwhile accused of “wilfully ignoring foreseeable climate harm,” even successfully delaying action to mitigate it through advertorials, lobbying and political donations. As such, the researchers argue, they must be “held accountable”. 

Based on a survey of 738 economists with climate expertise, the study calculates that human-caused climate change will cause US$99 trillion in damages globally between 2025 and 2050. Of this, US$70 trillion is due to fossil fuels. 

There is no “objective basis” to say who should pay this biblical climate bill between fossil fuel producers, fossil fuel emitters and political authorities, say the researchers. So they split it evenly, with each group to pay a third: US$23.3 trillion. 

Based on the historical emissions of fossil fuel producers, the researchers found that state-owned Saudi Aramco, responsible for a stunning 4.78% of global emissions, has by far the highest bill to pay: US$1.1 trillion. Rounding out the top five are ExxonMobil (US, US$478 billion), Shell (UK, US$424 billion), BP (UK, US$377 billion) and Chevron (US, US$333 billion).  

State-owned fossil fuel producers from less well-off countries, such as Russia’s Gazprom and Mexico’s Pemex, are given discounted bills. State producers in poorer countries such as India, Iran and Venezuela get a free pass entirely. 

The study does not go into detail on who should receive the money, but says that it should “compensate subjects more vulnerable to climate harm such as climate migrants and refugees, Indigenous peoples, racial and ethnic minority communities, people with disabilities, and people who are socially and economically disadvantaged.”

Shell issued a statement saying that the energy system is a result of “society’s choices” over many decades and that “everyone has a role to play” in addressing climate change. “For our part, we are reducing our own emissions and working closely with our customers to help them reduce theirs.”

Kristin Casper, General Counsel at Greenpeace International, said that fossil fuel companies must now “stop drilling and start paying”. 

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Global Warming Will Push Billions Into Dangerous Heat

A Saguaro cactus at sunrise

2 June 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

Global warming will soon push billions of people into living in “unprecedented” heat that threatens human survival, according to new research, with entire countries becoming dangerously hot. 

Various models used by the researchers found that as many as two billion people could be living in dangerously hot conditions by 2070 – just 37 years from now. 

While some of those models were upper estimates, even if the world continues warming at its current rate, two billion people will be left in dangerous heat by the end of the century.

“For every 0.1°C of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat,” said University of Exeter professor Tim Lenton, one of the leaders of the research.

“This reveals both the scale of the problem and the importance of decisive action to reduce carbon emissions.”

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – the goal set out in the Paris Agreement – rather than the 2.7°C that the world is on a path to reach would mean “five times fewer people in 2100 being exposed to dangerous heat,” says Lenton. 

Another lead researcher, Professor Marten Scheffer at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, said that the rising temperatures could lead “a billion or so” people to consider migrating to cooler places. 

The study, published in May, is said to be the first of its kind to treat all humans equally. Until now, research has calculated harm caused by the climate crisis in monetary terms – with rich people having more to lose. Research has also typically valued those living now more highly than those living in the future.

“This is unethical,” says the study. “When life or health are at stake, all people should be considered equal, whether rich or poor, alive or yet to be born.”

The study identified the “climate niche” in which most humans exist, with the majority of humans living in average temperatures around two peaks of 13°C or 27°C.

Very few people have historically lived in average temperatures of 29°C or above, which is what the study defined as the upper limit for humans’ climate niche. Living in such temperatures increases deaths, migration and conflict – among a raft of other bad side effects. 

A figure from the study

The study estimates that global warming has to date pushed more than 600 million people outside the temperature niche.

India and Nigeria are already showing “hotspots” of increased exposure to extreme heat. At the current rate of warming, it is predicted that India will have 600 million people and Nigeria 300 million people living outside of the niche by 2070. 

By that time some entire countries, including Burkina Faso and Mali, will be exposed to average temperatures of 29°C or above. 

Worst-case scenarios of around 3.6 °C or even 4.4 °C global warming could put half of the world population outside the niche by the end of the century, which the study says poses an “existential risk” to humanity. 

The study did not consider exposure to other sources of climate harm, including sea-level rise, which United Nations secretary general António Guterres recently warned could lead to migration on a “biblical” scale. 

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US Coastline Experiencing “Unprecedented” Sea Level Rise

Flooding in the US state of Louisiana in 2016

19 April 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

An “unprecedented” rise in sea levels on the US southeastern and Gulf Coasts is fuelling catastrophic flooding, according to new research  – with one study finding the trend represents a threat to “national security.” 

Two studies published in the last two months paint an alarming picture for the millions of Americans living on those coastlines, including in major cities such as Miami, New Orleans and Houston. 

One study published in Nature by researchers from Tulane University, New Orleans, found that sea levels have risen roughly a centimetre per year on the southeastern and Gulf Coasts since 2010 – around 12 centimetres in total.

The researchers said this was “unprecedented in at least 120 years.”

By comparison, global sea levels have risen around 3.6 millimetres annually since the early 1990s, according to figures from the US Environmental Protection Agency. 

The study found that the drastic sea level rise was caused by an unfortunate combination of man-made global warming and natural variations in the system of currents in the Atlantic. 

This rise has led to “exponential increases” in flooding and “increased damages due to major storms such as hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, and the prospect of accelerating land loss in the most vulnerable settings.”

The study says these examples illustrate that further increases in the rate of sea level rise, particularly rapid ones, “threaten the national security of the US”.

Another study published last month in the Journal of Climate by a team from the University of Arizona also found a “rapid” acceleration of sea level rise along the same coastlines since 2010, an “extreme” departure from the long-term trend. 

This coincided with “record-breaking” North Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent years, the study found. As in the other study, researchers found worsened coastal flooding due to the storms and exacerbated the damage caused. Last year’s Hurricane Ian racked up around US$113 billion in damages in the US alone. 

United Nations secretary general António Guterres recently warned that rising sea levels could cause climate migration on a “biblical scale”. And this is not limited to developing nations. One of the US states included in the recent studies, Louisiana, is already the home of what are reportedly the first climate migrants in the country.

Another recent study found that US households on the Atlantic coast are moving inland following natural disasters, but people on lower incomes are being left behind.

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Vanuatu Scores “Milestone” Win For Climate Justice in UN Vote

UN General Assembly

18 April 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

The UN General Assembly has passed a “milestone” resolution, championed by the tiny island nation of Vanuatu, seeking an opinion from the world’s top court on countries’ legal obligations to address the climate crisis. 

The 29 March resolution asks the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to say what the “legal consequences” are for states that, “by their acts and omissions,” have caused significant harm to the climate. 

Advisory opinions issued by the ICJ, such as the one sought in this resolution, are not legally binding. They can however carry great moral weight and influence governments and judges internationally. 

The resolution was, remarkably, born in a Pacific island classroom four years ago. After campaigning by student activists, Vanuatu, an archipelago of roughly 80 islands in the southeastern Pacific, agreed in 2021 to champion the petition. It went on to spearhead a “core group” of 17 countries from around the world who supported the resolution.

Ultimately, it received the support of more than 120 countries in the General Assembly, the main policy-making organ of the UN. 

Ishmael Kalsakau, prime minister of Vanuatu, which was last month hit by two category four cyclones within three days, said the vote represented “a win for climate justice of epic proportions.”

He said the “historic resolution is the beginning of a new era in multilateral climate cooperation, one that is more fully focused on upholding the rule of international law and an era that places human rights and intergenerational equity at the forefront of climate decision-making.”

Other states including Costa Rica, Papua New Guinea and Bangladesh hailed the resolution as a “milestone” for climate justice. 

Cynthia Houniuhi, president of the Pacific Island Students Fighting Climate Change, the group that helped bring the resolution to global attention, said they are “ecstatic that the world has listened to the Pacific Youth and has chosen to take action.”

The push to adopt the resolution had also received star power backing in the shape of legendary US actor and activist Jane Fonda.   

Not everyone was happy. The United States, whose “climate president” Joe Biden had days earlier approved a huge oil drilling project in Alaska, shied away from having a judicial process to hold states’ feet to the fire on climate obligations – calling for a “diplomatic” approach. 

The need for urgent action to address the climate crisis was once again thrown into sharp relief recently by the latest report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That report, which synthesised the findings of five earlier reports, found that there is a “rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.”

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Glacial Lake Flooding Threatens Millions Worldwide 

30 March 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

Fifteen million people worldwide are threatened by devastating flooding from glacial lakes, new research has found. 

The study, led by a team at Newcastle University, calls for “urgent” action to help avert future deaths from such floods. 

Deaths can be caused either directly by the floods, which are “highly destructive and can arrive with little prior warning,” or by damage to property, infrastructure and agricultural land. 

More than half of the globally exposed population live in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru and China. 

Much like other natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes, floods from glacial lakes represent not just a threat to life but a major displacement risk for millions worldwide.

Last year, a glacial lake in Pakistan burst its banks and wiped out a bridge downstream, as well as damaging nearby homes and two powerplants. 

Melting Himalayan glaciers have also been identified as having fuelled last year’s devastating floods in Pakistan, which left a third of the country underwater. Those floods reportedly displaced over 32 million people. 

This study was the first to try and map where people are most at risk from “glacial lake outburst floods,” as they are known.

Since 1990, the study says that the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population. This is because glaciers are shrinking due to global warming. 

The lakes, which form in hollowed out glacier beds or on top of existing glaciers, can also trigger “positive feedbacks” causing further ice loss. 

The study found that 15 million people live within 50 kilometres of a glacial lake, placing them at risk from flooding. In Asia, a region where there is likely to be little warning of flooding or certainty as to how powerful floods will be, one million people live within one kilometre of such lakes. 

Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region is most vulnerable to such flooding. However the study also said that a lack of research on flood risk in the Andes “urgently” requires attention, with the second- and third-most dangerous basins found in Peru and Bolivia. 

The study said improvements to early warning systems such as time lapse cameras for flooding are “urgently needed,” alongside other measures such as evacuation drills. 

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UN Chief: Rising Seas Risk “Biblical” Levels of Migration

23 March 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

United Nations secretary general António Guterres has warned that rising sea levels could cause climate migration on a “biblical scale”, with the current rate of global warming representing a  “death sentence” for entire countries.

Addressing the 15-member UN Security Council in New York last month, Guterres once again sounded the alarm bell for the “unthinkable” consequences of rapidly melting ice sheets and glaciers. 

Antarctica and the Greenland ice cap are now between them losing 420 billion tons of ice mass annually according to US space agency NASA, he said. 

The resulting sea level rise could cause low-lying communities and entire countries to “disappear forever,” Guterres told the Council. There would also be “ever-fiercer competition for fresh water, land and other resources.”

Addressing the “root cause” of rising seas, the climate crisis, Guterres said the world is currently “hurtling past the 1.5°C warming limit that a liveable future requires” — a limit that would still see sizeable sea-level rise.

“Every fraction of a degree counts,” said Guterres. “If temperatures rise by 2 degrees, that level rise could double”. Currently the world is “careening towards 2.8°C — a death sentence for vulnerable countries.” 

“Under any scenario,” Guterres said that countries like Bangladesh, China, India and the Netherlands are all at risk. And mega-cities on every continent will face “serious impacts”, including Lagos, London, Mumbai, New York and Buenos Aires. 

The danger is “especially acute” for nearly 900 million people who live in coastal zones at low elevations, said Guterres. “That is one out of ten people on earth.” 

Guterres stressed that the effects of global warming are already being felt. Himalayan melts have worsened flooding in Pakistan, he said, while also citing flooding in West Africa, such as that suffered recently in Nigeria.  

The impacts of rising seas must also be addressed, including international refugee law, he said. “People’s human rights do not disappear because their homes do.” 

The International Law Commission had last year considered a “range of potential solutions” to the problems caused by rising sea levels, including continuing statehood despite loss of territory, ceding or assigning portions of territory to an affected state, or even establishing confederations of states.

Guterres’ latest dire warning on the climate comes as even half-hearted efforts to address global warming have been hampered by the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which have diverted political attention from the issue. 

Last year, he said the world was “sleepwalking to climate catastrophe”, with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C – as set out in the 2015 Paris agreement – on “life support”. 

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A “Dangerous Link”: Climate-Fuelled Violence in the Lake Chad Basin

Lake Chad in Nigeria's northeastern Borno State

1 March 2023 – by Cosmo Sanderson

A new report has found climate change is fuelling violence that has led to the displacement of over 5 million people in the Lake Chad Basin, calling for action that recognises the “dangerous link” between the issues. 

Refugees International released a report in January arguing that the influence of climate change on conflict and displacement in the basin has been “ignored for too long”. 

Governments and agencies need to “move beyond” an approach that focuses only on regional security, according to the US-based NGO. “That approach not only misses the worsening impacts of climate change and displacement but overlooks how they fuel insecurity.”

The Lake Chad Basin serves as an important source of freshwater and fish as well as a trading hub for the four countries that share its shores: Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger.  

However for the last 13 years the region around the lake in all four countries has been ravaged by conflict and violence. The UN estimates that 24 million people are now affected by the crisis, with around 5.3 million displaced. 

In its report, Refugees International says the crisis and displacement caused are often “viewed through the lens of regional security” – including attacks by Islamist groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria. 

But the report argues that the uptick in conflict and displacement has been fuelled by increased competition for land, water and food as a result of global warming.  

A “prime example” of this came in Cameroon in 2021, when climate-driven scarcity triggered tensions between fishing, farming and herding communities – resulting in an “eruption of violence”. Around 60,000 Cameroonians sought refuge in neighbouring Chad as a result. 

The report called for a then-upcoming summit on the Lake Chad Basin, which took place last month, to “address the nexus of climate change, violence and displacement” as part of its plan for stabilising the region. 

Speaking at the conference, Niger’s foreign minister Hassoumi Massoudou acknowledged that action taken so far seems “very far from the reality” of the needs of those being exposed to the “cumulative effects of insecurity and climate change.”

Over US$500 million in aid was pledged at the conference, although this sum is far short of the estimated US$1.8 billion the UN has said is required.